Wheat Still Holding Lower on Friday
Wheat futures were down at midday across all three major exchanges. Chicago SRW futures fell by 4 cents, KC HRW by 2-4 cents, and MPLS spring wheat by 2-3 cents. USDA’s upcoming report is expected to cut all wheat production to 1.966 billion bushels, with significant reductions in HRW and spring wheat. Meanwhile, wheat export commitments hit a four-year high, but lag behind the 5-year average pace. European and Ukrainian wheat production estimates have also been trimmed.
Wheat futures are stuck at Friday’s midday with weakness, as all three exchanges are lower. Chicago SRW futures are down 4 cents in the nearbys. KC HRW contracts are 2 to 4 cents lower across the front months at midday. MPLS spring wheat is down 2 to 3 cents on the session.
On Monday, the USDA will release the annual Small Grains summary, with analysts expecting to seen all wheat production at 1.966 billion bushels, which would be a 16 mbu cut from the previous update in the August Crop Production report. HRW production is seen down 8 mbu to 768 mnu, as SRW output is expected to be steady at 342, and white winter up 1 at 244 mbu according to a Reuters survey of analysts. Spring wheat is pegged at 540 mbu down 4 from August if realized, with Durum down 1 to 76 mbu. We will also get a look at first quarter demand, with September 1 stocks expected to be 1.973 bbu.
Export Sales data took commitments for all wheat exports to 11.259 MMT, a 4-year high and 22% above last year. That is 50% of the USDA export projection, which lags the 54% of the 5-year average sales pace for the current week.
The FranceAgriMer estimates the French soft wheat crop at 1% planted as of 9/23. The European Commission estimates the EU wheat production at 114.6 MMT, down 1.5 MMT from the previous month. They trimmed ending stocks by 0.8 MMT to 11.7 MMT. Ukraine’s ag minister estimates the 2024/25 wheat crop at 21.8 MMT, compared to the 22.3 MMT update in the September WASDE from USDA.
Dec 24 CBOT Wheat is at $5.80 1/4, down 4 cents,
Mar 25 CBOT Wheat is at $6.00 1/4, down 4 cents,
Dec 24 KCBT Wheat is at $5.75 3/4, down 3 1/4 cents,
Mar 25 KCBT Wheat is at $5.91 1/4, down 2 1/2 cents,
Dec 24 MGEX Wheat is at $6.09 1/4, down 2 1/4 cents,
Mar 25 MGEX Wheat is at $6.30 3/4, down 2 3/4 cents
Source Link : https://www.nasdaq.com/articles/wheat-still-holding-lower-friday
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