White sugar prices may go through the roof in Q1 2026 without Indian supply: Covrig
Global sugar prices are near multi-week highs as Asian and Middle Eastern import demand offsets Brazil’s record output. Claudiu Covrig noted Pakistan, Bangladesh, and Azerbaijan’s large purchases tightening white sugar supplies. He warned India’s ethanol diversion and export policy will be crucial, with potential deficits looming in early 2026.
Global sugar prices are trading near multi-week highs, supported by strong import demand from Asia and the Middle East, even as Brazil continues to produce at record levels.
Claudiu Covrig, Founder & Lead Analyst at Covrig Analytics, told CNBC-TV18 that while Brazil’s large crop is exerting bearish pressure, white sugar markets are turning bullish on fresh buying.
“Pakistan has already accepted a tender of 105,000 tonnes and floated another for 200,000 tonnes, while Bangladesh has opened for 500,000 tonnes of imports,” Covrig said. He added that Azerbaijan has also committed about 85,000 tonnes, tightening supplies in the London white sugar market.
For India, exports remain critical, but high freight costs and ethanol diversion policies will determine the supply outlook. “If more than 4–5 million tonnes are diverted to ethanol, domestic pressure will ease. But if not, then sugar will flow to exports at cheaper levels,” Covrig warned.
He cautioned that global markets could face a significant deficit in Q1 and Q2 of 2026 if India does not step in. “Indian sugar is needed in Q1. If it does not come, the white sugar market will go through the roof by the end of Q1,” he said.
Covrig expects Indian policymakers to balance domestic ethanol programmes with export needs, highlighting that around 1.8 million tonnes of Indian white sugar exports are factored into global trade flows for 2026.
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