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Will rice spoil India’s inflation math?

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A look at how rising prices of cereals, particularly rice, are turning out to be a major concern.

Amid rain-related concerns about the prospect of the kharif crop, especially rice, the government banned the export of non-basmati rice on July 20. While it is still early days to draw conclusions about the fate of this year’s rice crop, is inflation in cereals, especially rice, emerging as an important concern? This is a question worth engaging with not just from the perspective of short-term inflation management – RBI’s Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) will meet early next month – but also the larger political economy canvas in the run-up to the 2024 national elections. Here are some charts which try to answer this question.

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