World wheat prices are falling, but demand for food wheat is growing in Ukraine
Wheat prices fell globally due to increased supply from accelerating harvests. In Ukraine, food wheat prices rose slightly, while feed wheat dropped amid quality concerns. U.S. wheat exports surged, but spring crop conditions worsened. Global prices remain under pressure, though demand for quality wheat may support prices in the coming weeks.
Reduced rainfall in Ukraine has helped speed up grain harvests and increase export supplies, which has calmed markets somewhat. But prolonged rains have worsened wheat quality, leading to a drop in feed wheat prices and a rise in food prices.
World wheat prices fell slightly during the week, although demand for cheap American wheat increased.
In Ukraine, export purchase prices for wheat with delivery to Black Sea ports
- increased for food wheat by 100-200 UAH/t to 10700–10900 UAH/t or 226–230 $/t,
- decreased for feed wheat by 200-300 UAH/t to 10,000–10,100 UAH/t or $210–212/t.
Some wheat batches, especially in western regions, are showing increased levels of fungal damage (Alternaria or sooty mold), so traders expect a shortage of quality food wheat.
Wheat exports in MY 2025/26 (as of August 4) amounted to 862 thousand tons compared to 1.517 million tons a year ago, but the pace of exports has increased in recent weeks.
As of July 31, 2025, 11.36 million tons of wheat were threshed in Ukraine from 3.05 million hectares (61% of the planned area) with a yield of 3.72 tons/hectare.
The delay in wheat harvesting in Europe and another deterioration in the condition of spring wheat crops in the US, against the backdrop of a sharp increase in export demand for wheat from the US, have not yet provided support to stock market quotes, and September futures have decreased during the week:
- by 4.2% to $189.9/t – for SRW wheat in Chicago,
- by 1.7% to $190/t – for HRW wheat in Kansas City,
- by 1.7% to $210.5/t – for HRS wheat in Minneapolis,
- by 1% to 197.25/t or $228/t – for wheat on the Paris Euronext exchange.
During July 24-31, wheat exports from the United States doubled compared to the previous week to 599.6 thousand tons, and in total since the beginning of the 2025/26 season (June 1) amounted to 3.91 million tons, which is 8.8% ahead of last year’s pace.
As of August 3, winter wheat in the US has been threshed on 86% of the area (87% last year and 87% on average for 5 years), but the number of spring wheat crops in good or excellent condition decreased again by 1% to 48% per week (74% last year).
According to Rusagrotrans, the demand prices for August deliveries of Russian wheat with 12.5% protein fell by $3/t to $237/t FOB in a week following a drop in prices for French wheat by $2/t to $232/t, Romanian wheat by $7/t to $238/t, Australian wheat by $1/t to $255/t, American wheat by $3/t to $216/t, while prices for Argentine wheat remained at $232/t.
Accelerating the harvest and increasing the supply of new crop grain in the absence of large tenders is increasing pressure on world prices, so they will remain at the same levels in the near future.
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Source : Ukr Agro Consult
