Zambia maize production bounces back
Zambia has rebounded from the 2024 drought, forecasting a 3.66 million tonne maize harvest—well above its 2.8 million tonne domestic need—making it a net exporter again. Improved rainfall also boosted harvests in Zimbabwe and South Africa. South Africa expects a 14.66 million tonne crop, securing its export role and easing food inflation across Southern Africa.
In the summer of 2024, Zambia, a country reliant on minimal maize imports for nearly two decades, was in a tricky position. Like many countries in Southern Africa, it was hit by the mid-summer drought.
Zambia had planted its usual maize area of 1,4 million hectares. It seemed like the season was shaping up well for a moment, promising a decent maize crop, a staple food. Things changed for the worse in February. The country was hit by the mid-summer drought, which led to half of the harvest being lost and the government declaring a state of natural disaster.
The season started with relatively small opening stocks of just under half a million tonnes, and the expected harvest was about a million tonnes. This volume would not meet Zambia’s annual maize needs of 2,8 million tonnes. The country had to import a million tonnes of maize to meet its annual needs, which elevated domestic grain prices and general food inflation.
Zambia was not alone and was not the worst-affected country in the region by the mid-summer drought of 2024. Zimbabwe lost roughly 60% of its maize crop, and neighbouring countries experienced significant losses.
Because of its improved seed cultivars, South Africa saw a much better path. The drought led to a 22% decline in maize harvest to 12.85 million tonnes, which meant South Africa was among the few countries that had to supply maize to the region.
Another positive aspect is that South Africa had large opening stocks of over two million tonnes, which added to the 12.85 million tonnes. This placed the country in a better position to supply the region and cushion it from a food crisis.
But we are now far from this reality. Zambia’s 2024-25 maize crop has bounced back. The government forecasts the harvest to be 3.66 million tonnes, up from 1,5 million tonnes the previous season. This is because of favourable weather conditions and the decent area plantings.
The harvest is under way in the country, and the message we are hearing about the quality of the crop remains encouraging. This also means Zambia could return to being a net exporter of maize because its domestic maize consumption is about 2.8 million tonnes, far surpassed by the expected harvest of 3.66 million tonnes.
Importantly, one can expect the domestic maize prices to continue moderating as the harvest continues, thus easing the general food price inflation.
Zambia is also not the only fortunate country in the Southern Africa region. The entire region received better rains, even excessive rains in some areas. We continue to hear encouraging news of the better grain harvest in Zimbabwe. For example, Zimbabwean farmers likely planted 1.7 million hectares of maize this year, slightly lower than last year but decent.
We will know more about the yields in the coming weeks and months. What is clear at the moment is that Zimbabwe will, too, have a better maize harvest compared to the 2023-24 drought year.
The South African story is even more optimistic. For example, South Africa’s 2024-25 maize harvest is forecast at 14.66 million tonnes. There is an increase in white and yellow maize, with harvests now at 7.75 million tonnes and 6.91 million tonnes, respectively.
Overall, the maize harvest of 14.66 million tonnes is up 14% year-on-year, primarily benefiting from expected yield improvements on an annual basis. Importantly, these forecasts are well above South Africa’s yearly maize needs of about 11.8 million tonnes, which implies that South Africa will have a surplus and remain a net exporter of maize.
The 2024-25 season is a positive change for Southern Africa’s staple crop, maize. Importantly, it is encouraging to see Zambia bounce back. This country is vital in maize supplies to the region as the second largest producer after South Africa.
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Source : Mail & Guardian
