US: CoBank predicts ethanol industry earnings will remain stable
U.S. ethanol plant earnings remain stable, with continued high production and exports, per CoBank’s latest Quarterly Research Report. Ethanol margins are expected to benefit from lower corn and natural gas prices. U.S. ethanol exports hit a record in 2024, projected to reach 2 billion gallons in 2025, although rising corn ethanol production in Brazil could increase export competition.
Average U.S. ethanol plant earnings are currently stable and expected to continue the same trajectory, according to CoBank’s latest Quarterly Research Report, released Oct. 10. Production levels and exports are expected to remain high.
According to the report, U.S. ethanol plants are currently coming off seasonal high runs with near-record volumes corn going to fuel ethanol production this summer. Many facilities completed maintenance shutdowns in August and are now ready to take advantage of this fall’s bumper corn harvest to keep production climbing, CoBank continued.
Moving into the fourth quarter, CoBank said it expects ethanol margins to benefit from lower corn and natural gas prices. Improved corn oil extraction rates will also boost revenue.
Ethanol exports hit a new record during 2024 marketing year and are continuing to grow. Marketing year 2025 began Sept. 1, and CoBank currently expects ethanol exports to reach a record 2 billion gallons at a value of $4.3 billion. The report, however, cautions that the growth of corn ethanol production in Brazil could create more ethanol export competition in the future. According to CoBank, Brazil’s ethanol production has increased 41%, reaching 15.85 billion gallons per year, with a nameplate capacity of 18 billion gallons per year. The country now has 22 corn ethanol plants, which consume approximately 15% of domestic corn production.
Source: https://ethanolproducer.com/articles/cobank-predicts-ethanol-industry-earnings-will-remain-stable
