Sugar prices in Ukraine will rise in the next month
Ukraine’s sugar prices are expected to rise moderately by up to 20% by August, reaching UAH 30–35/kg wholesale and retail, driven by seasonal demand, low stock levels, rising gas costs, and EU quota cuts. Production is also pressured by war-related financial constraints. However, prices should ease in September with the new sugar beet harvest, avoiding sharp fluctuations.
The wholesale price of sugar in Ukraine fluctuates due to seasonal and market factors. After a recent decline, experts predict a moderate increase, but a sharp jump in price is not to be expected. [ Kommersant asked Leonid Kozachenko, President of the Ukrainian Agrarian Confederation, what exactly will cause the rise in sugar prices in the coming month and how significant it will be.
He explained that sugar prices are not fixed and depend on the market situation, which changes daily. A month ago, the wholesale price was quite attractive for producers – about UAH 27-29 per kilogram. Then it slightly decreased to UAH 24-25 per kilogram. Such fluctuations are normal in the market,” the expert said.
He added that it is in the period from July to September that sugar prices traditionally rise. There are two reasons for this. The first is that the new sugar beet harvest begins only in the second half of September. Until then, the remnants of the last harvest are sold, which are sometimes not enough, so the price goes up. The second reason is the European Union’s intention to further reduce quotas on imports of our sugar. This adds instability to the market,” explained Kozachenko.
In addition, the expert drew attention to the seasonal increase in demand for the product. “Strawberries and other berries are being harvested now, and people are buying sugar more actively to make compotes and jams. This increases demand. And the transitional residues of sugar, I repeat, are decreasing,” the expert said.
“The cost of sugar production is also growing. Mainly due to the rise in gas prices, said Kozachenko. Production technology and production costs are also affected by the war and financial constraints of farmers. Due to the shortage of working capital and high interest rates on loans, they are forced to reduce the use of mineral fertilizers and disrupt crop rotation. This affects productivity and, ultimately, prices,” Kozachenko added.
The expert predicts that within two months of summer, the wholesale price of sugar in Ukraine may rise to UAH 30 per kilogram. In retail, according to his forecast, the price may rise to an average of 35 UAH per kilogram. “We expect the price increase to be within 15% over the next month, with a maximum of 20% at the end of August. That is, on average, up to UAH 35 per kilogram of product. But in September, with the start of the new harvest, prices will go down again. Sugar producers are working steadily, so we should expect sharp jumps only in case of significant changes in the market or the economy,” the expert summarized.
“So, in the coming months, Ukrainian consumers will experience a moderate rise in sugar prices due to seasonal factors, rising production costs and external market challenges. However, thanks to the stable work of producers and the expected start of the new harvest, sharp price fluctuations will be avoided.
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Source : Komersant
