EIA increases forecasts for 2025, 2026 fuel ethanol production
The U.S. Energy Information Administration raised its 2025–26 fuel ethanol production forecast to 1.07 million barrels per day. Quarterly output in 2026 will range from 1.05 to 1.09 million bpd. Net ethanol imports remain negative at -140,000 bpd, while consumption stays steady at 930,000 barrels per day.
The U.S. Energy Information Administration increased its forecast for 2025 and 2026 fuel ethanol production in its latest Short-Term Energy Outlook, released Nov. 12. The outlook for 2025 and 2026 ethanol exports was also revised up.
The EIA currently expects fuel ethanol production to average 1.07 million barrels per day in both 2025 and 2026, up from last month’s respective forecasts of 1.06 million barrels per day. Fuel ethanol production was at 1.06 million barrels per day in 2024.
On a quarterly basis, fuel ethanol production is expected to average 1.08 million barrels per day during the final quarter of this year. Moving into 2026, fuel ethanol production is expected to average 1.08 million barrels per day during the first quarter, 1.06 million barrels per day during the second quarter, 1.05 million barrels per day during the third quarter and 1.09 million barrels per day during the fourth quarter.
Net imports of fuel ethanol are now expected to average -140,000 barrels per day this year and next year, compared to last month’s respective forecasts of -130,000 barrels per day. Net imports of fuel ethanol were at -130,000 barrels per day last year.
Fuel ethanol consumption is expected to average 930,000 barrels per day in 2025 and 2026, unchanged from the October STEO. Fuel ethanol consumption was at 930,000 barrels per day last year.
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Source : Ethanol Producer Magazine
