EU to increase vegetable oil production and set a record for oilseed meal output
The European Commission forecasts EU oilseed production to rise 3.1% to 32.7 million tonnes in 2026/27, boosting vegetable oil and record 30.4 million tonnes of oilseed meal output. Meanwhile, olive oil production is expected to fall 5%, although lower prices are projected to lift exports by 6% and imports by 24%.
The European Commission expects EU oilseed production to increase in the 2026/27 season, according to its July Short-Term Outlook. Combined production of rapeseed, sunflower seed, and soybeans is forecast at 32.7 mln tons, up 3.1% from last year and 5.3% above the five-year average. The increase is mainly driven by larger planted areas and higher sunflower seed yields, supporting higher vegetable oil production and a record 30.4 mln tons of oilseed meal output.
Higher oilseed production is expected to improve raw material supplies for the European processing industry and strengthen the EU’s position in the vegetable oils market. At the same time, the European Commission notes that the overall outlook for the agricultural sector remains positive despite continuing risks related to weather conditions, energy markets, and global trade.
Meanwhile, EU olive oil production in the 2025/26 season is forecast to decline by 5% year-on-year and remain below 2.1 mln tons. Spain, the bloc’s largest producer, was affected by excessive rainfall in early 2026, which reduced crop quality. Nevertheless, production is expected to remain above the five-year average.
After a significant decline, olive oil prices have stabilized at lower levels since late April. This is expected to improve the competitiveness of EU olive oil on the global market, with exports projected to increase by 6% year-on-year. At the same time, EU olive oil imports are forecast to rise by 24%, mainly due to more competitive supplies from Tunisia.
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Source : Ukr Agro Consult
