Ukraine no longer dictates sunflower oil prices anywhere but Europe – opinion
Ukraine risks losing its status as the top sunflower oil exporter as Russia’s production and exports rise despite lower yields. Global demand is weakening, pressuring Ukrainian processors that rely on stable seed supply. Analysts warn Ukraine’s shrinking market influence as Argentina and Russia expand output while its harvest has fallen sharply.
Ukraine is annually approaching the loss of its status as the world’s largest sunflower oil exporter, according to Sergey Repetsky, partner at Sunstone Brokers, as reported by Latifundist.com.
According to him, despite the decline in yields, Russia could harvest 17.5–18 million tons of sunflower seeds this season and export around 4.5 million tons of oil—a figure that already equals or even exceeds Ukraine’s.
The aggressor country’s yield is declining more slowly than Ukraine’s. Meanwhile, demand for sunflower seeds in the Black Sea region is declining overall, creating new risks for Ukrainian processing. Ukraine has large oilseed processing plants that require a stable supply of seeds.
“We don’t dictate prices anywhere except in Europe. We’re no longer number one in China, Turkey, or India. We need to take off our crown a bit, because many still think the entire global sunflower oil market depends on Ukrainian oil. The Argentine harvest has grown by 43% over the past two years, and the Russian harvest by 20%, while Ukraine has lost 35% of its sunflower crop,” says Repetsky.
He adds that the biggest problem is the decline in demand, not just production volumes. This impacts the processing industry, which requires large volumes of high-quality seeds to operate sustainably.
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Source : Ukr Agro Consult
