Grain production in the EU and the UK could fall by 4% next year
COCERAL forecasts EU grain output at 275.6 million tonnes in 2026, 4% lower than 2025. Wheat and barley production are expected to fall as winter crop yields normalise. Corn may recover slightly, though acreage continues to decline as farmers shift to other spring crops. Soil moisture conditions are currently favourable.
The Organization of European Grain Traders (COCERAL) forecasts EU grain production in 2026 to reach 275.6 million tonnes. Compared to the current year, the harvest will be down 4%.
COCERAL expects winter crop yields to decline from the exceptional levels seen in 2025. Winter crops are currently developing well in many parts of the EU. Recent rains have provided sufficient soil moisture.
The corn harvest will recover from the 2025 drought, barring further favorable weather conditions. Given the disappointment of corn yields in recent years, corn acreage is likely to continue to decline, particularly in the Balkans and France, as farmers switch to other spring crops such as sunflowers and soybeans.
Gross grain harvest in the EU-27
| Crop | 2025, mln t | 2026, mln t |
| Soft wheat | 136,4 | 129,7 |
| Durum wheat | 8,6 | 7,9 |
| Barley | 56,2 | 52,5 |
| Corn | 56,9 | 58,8 |
| Grain, total | 287,4 | 275,6 |
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Source : Ukr Agro Consult
