USDA reduced forecast for wheat exports from Ukraine
USDA raised its 2025/26 global wheat production forecast to 842.17 million tons, with higher exports and ending stocks. Output increased in Argentina and Russia, while Ukraine and the US outlook remained mostly unchanged. Global supplies are expected to stay ample despite regional adjustments.
USDA has increased its forecast for world wheat production in the MY 2025/26 by 4.36 million tons to 842.17 million tons, the ministry’s report for January states.
The forecast for world wheat exports is 219.76 million tons (up 1.05 million tons). Experts have increased the forecast for ending wheat stocks in the world to 278.25 million tons (+3.38 million tons).
The forecast for the wheat harvest in Ukraine is unchanged – 23 million tons, exports will be at the level of 14 million tons (-0.5 million tons), ending stocks – 1.93 million tons.
The forecast for the wheat harvest for the US is 54.01 million tons. The estimate for exports is also unchanged – 24.49 million tons, ending stocks – 25.21 million tons (+0.69 million tons).
Forecast for major wheat exporters for MY 2025/26:
| Country | Harvest, mln tons | Export, mln tons | Stocks, mln tons |
|---|---|---|---|
| Argentina | 27,5 (+3,5) | 16 (+1,5) | 6,01 (+1,49) |
| Australia | 37 (0) | 27 (0) | 5,09 (0) |
| Canada | 39,96 (0) | 28 (0) | 6,32 (0) |
| EU | 144 (0) | 32,5 (-0,5) | 14,21 (+0,5) |
| Russia | 89,5 (+2) | 44 (0) | 14,69 (+1,5) |
USDA analysts forecast wheat production in China in the MY 2025/26 at 140.07 million tons (+0.07 million tons), import estimates at 6 million tons, and ending stocks at 124.85 million tons (+0.07).
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Source : Ukr Agro Consult
