Ukraine could regain global leadership in sunflower oil exports
Ukraine could regain its position as the world’s largest sunflower oil exporter in 2026/27, with USDA projecting shipments of 5 million tonnes against Russia’s revised 4.85 million tonnes. Lower Russian sunflower seed production and oil output estimates have shifted export prospects in Ukraine’s favour.
Ukraine could once again become the world’s largest sunflower oil exporter in the MY 2026/27, overtaking Russia. In its November report, USDA kept its forecast for Ukrainian sunflower oil exports unchanged at 5 mln tons, while lowering Russia’s export estimate by 250 thsd tons to 4.85 mln tons. As a result, Ukraine could surpass its main competitor by 150 thsd tons.
In October, USDA analysts had expected Russia to retain its leading position, forecasting exports of 5.1 mln tons compared with 5 mln tons from Ukraine. However, downward revisions to Russia’s sunflower seed and sunflower oil production estimates have shifted the outlook in favor of Ukrainian exporters.
In particular, USDA lowered its forecast for Russia’s sunflower seed harvest in 2026/27 by 600 thsd tons, from 21 mln to 20.4 mln tons. Meanwhile, the sunflower oil production estimate was reduced by 248 thsd tons, from 7.806 mln to 7.558 mln tons. The expected decline in supply prompted a downward revision to the country’s export potential.
USDA’s November forecasts for Ukraine remained unchanged. Sunflower seed production in 2026/27 is estimated at 13 mln tons, while sunflower oil output is projected at 5.418 mln tons. Export potential stands at 5 mln tons, almost 24% above actual shipments in the previous season.
In 2025/26, Ukraine lost its position as the world’s leading sunflower oil exporter for the first time in 20 seasons, having held the top spot since 2005/06. Ukrainian exports totaled 4.036 mln tons, compared with 4.2 mln tons shipped by Russia. If USDA’s November forecasts materialize, Ukraine could regain first place in the global market this season, although its projected lead over Russia would remain narrow.
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Source : Ukr Agro Consult
