EIA increases forecast for 2026 fuel ethanol production in February STEO
The U.S. Energy Information Administration raised its 2026 fuel ethanol production forecast to 1.08 million bpd in its latest Short-Term Energy Outlook, while keeping 2027 output and export projections unchanged. Consumption is seen steady at 930,000 bpd, with net exports remaining strong through 2027.
The U.S. Energy Information Administration increased its forecast for 2026 fuel ethanol production in its latest Short-Term Energy Outlook, released Feb. 10. The outlook for 2026 ethanol exports was maintained.
The EIA currently expects fuel ethanol production to average 1.08 million barrels per day this year, up from the January outlook of 1.07 million barrels per day. The agency maintained its forecast that fuel ethanol production will average 1.08 million barrels per day in 2027. Fuel ethanol production averaged 1.07 million barrels per day last year.
On a quarterly basis, fuel ethanol production is expected to average 1.07 million barrels per day in the first quarter of this year, falling to 1.06 million barrels per day in the second quarter, before rebounding to 1.07 million barrels per day in the third quarter and expanding to 1.11 million barrels per day in the fourth quarter. Moving into 2027, fuel ethanol production is expected to average 1.06 million barrels per day during the first quarter, 1.07 million barrels per day in the second quarter, 1.08 million barrels per day in the third quarter and 1.11 million barrels per day in the fourth quarter.
Net imports of fuel ethanol are currently expected to average -150,000 barrels per day in 2026 and 2027. Both forecasts were maintained from the January STEO. Net imports of fuel ethanol were at -140,000 barrels per day in 2025.
Fuel ethanol consumption is expected to average 930,000 barrels per day in both 2026 and 2027, unchanged from last month’s outlook. The EIA now estimates that fuel ethanol blending averaged 930,000 barrels per day in 2025, down from the January estimate of 940,000 barrels per day.
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Source : Ethanol Producer Magazine
