India’s wheat exports face challenges despite lifting three-year ban
India has reopened wheat exports with a 2.5 million tonne cap to ease record stocks and support domestic prices. However, high Indian prices—over $45 per tonne above global levels—limit competitiveness. Bangladesh remains the primary outlet, while large-scale exports may depend on potential global price rises later this year.
India has resumed wheat exports after a three-year ban, allowing shipments of up to 2.5 million tonnes in an effort to support farmers amid declining domestic prices. The government aims to ease pressure from wheat stocks, which have reached their highest level in a decade.
However, re-entering the global market is proving difficult. Indian wheat remains significantly more expensive than prevailing international prices, even after accounting for freight costs. Traders estimate that price gaps at ports such as Kandla and Visakhapatnam exceed $45 per tonne, making seaborne exports commercially unviable.
In practice, Bangladesh appears to be the only feasible destination, with limited volumes potentially moving via road and rail. At the same time, the government is not expected to introduce export subsidies, further constraining India’s competitiveness in the global market.
Analysts note that the outlook could shift later this year if an El Niño-driven production shortfall tightens global supplies. A potential rise in world prices may improve India’s export prospects, but for now, large-scale shipments remain uncertain.
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Source : Ukr Agro Consult
