Ukraine sugar prices climb to 21,000-23,000 UAH/t as global surplus forecast cut on El Niño risks
Ukraine sugar prices rose to 21,000–23,000 UAH/tonne despite weak demand after EU market loss. Global surplus outlook cut sharply by Czarnikow on El Niño risks and ethanol diversion. Lower output forecasts and higher consumption tightened balances, while volatile global prices continue influencing Ukraine’s domestic market trends.
Sugar prices in Ukraine have risen to between 21,000 and 23,000 Ukrainian hryvnias (UAH) per tonne, even as domestic demand remains under pressure following the closure of the European Union market, according to agricultural consultancy GrainTrade, as reported by UkrAgroConsult.
The rise in Ukrainian prices comes in the wake of a broader movement in global sugar markets, where commodity research firm Czarnikow has significantly revised down its forecast for the world sugar surplus in the 2026-27 marketing year (MY). According to Czarnikow, the projected surplus has been reduced by 300,000 tonnes to 1.1 million tonnes compared to March estimates, a sharp retreat from the 3.4 million tonne surplus the firm had forecast as recently as February.
Czarnikow attributed the downward revision primarily to the potential impact of the El Niño weather phenomenon on sugarcane production in India, Thailand, and Brazil. The consultancy noted that El Niño typically brings hot and dry conditions to India and Thailand, adversely affecting cane yields, while in Brazil it causes excess rainfall that disrupts the pace of cane crushing and processing.
The firm also revised its production and consumption forecasts for 2026-27. Global sugar output is now projected at 180.4 million tonnes, down 200,000 tonnes from the March estimate, while consumption has been revised upward by 100,000 tonnes to 179.3 million tonnes.
For the current 2025-26 MY, Czarnikow said world sugar production would reach 184.1 million tonnes, which would be the second highest level on record. Output in Thailand is expected to rise from 11.5 million tonnes to 12 million tonnes, while India is projected to come close to 28 million tonnes. However, the surplus forecast for 2025-26 has been cut from 8.3 million tonnes to 5.8 million tonnes compared to February estimates. Czarnikow said the reduction in overall sugar production projections partly reflects an increase in the volume of sugarcane being diverted to ethanol processing, driven by higher oil and petroleum product prices.
On global price movements, the report noted that world sugar prices had risen sharply in March following the outbreak of conflict involving Iran but retreated to multi-year lows in April. Since the start of April, May futures for white sugar No. 5 on the London Stock Exchange fell 5 per cent to $424 per tonne, representing a decline of 8.5 per cent over the month, though they remained 4.7 per cent above pre-conflict levels. Cane sugar No. 11 futures in New York fell more sharply, dropping 11.5 per cent to $306 per tonne, down 10.5 per cent for the month and 2.9 per cent below pre-conflict levels.
In Ukraine, domestic prices have tracked the global uptick despite the overhang of weak demand following loss of access to EU markets, with the current range of 21,000 to 23,000 UAH per tonne reflecting partial alignment with the recovery in international quotes.
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Source: ChiniMandi
