Ukraine to boost grain production and exports in MY 2026/27
Ukraine’s grain production is forecast to rise in MY 2026/27, driven by favourable weather and adequate inputs. Corn, barley and rapeseed output will increase, while wheat may decline. Exports are expected to grow strongly despite current disruptions from war, with Ukraine expanding shipments to alternative global markets.
Ukraine is expected to significantly increase grain production in the MY 2026/27, according to a forecast by USDA Foreign Agricultural Service. Improved weather conditions and sufficient input supplies are expected to help farmers recover output after several challenging seasons.
Analysts say soil moisture levels are adequate for spring planting, while farmers are well supplied with fertilisers and crop protection products. This creates favourable conditions for yield growth across key crops nationwide.
Rapeseed production is forecast at 4 million tonnes, up 25% from the previous season. However, experts caution that spring frosts of -2 to -3°C during the flowering stage could still reduce final output.
Overall, grain production excluding wheat is expected to rise: corn is projected at 31.5 million tonnes (+3%), barley at 6.1 million tonnes (+9%), while wheat is forecast to decline to 22.7 million tonnes (-5%).
Export volumes are also expected to grow sharply. Corn exports could reach 26 million tonnes (+26%), wheat 15.5 million tonnes (+19%), and barley 4.2 million tonnes—more than double current levels—supported by large carryover stocks and improving logistics.
At the same time, exports in the current season remain under pressure, with average monthly shipments down 22% to 2.8 million tonnes compared with 3.6 million tonnes a year earlier. The decline is linked to Russian attacks on infrastructure, EU import restrictions, and cautious selling by farmers due to low prices.
Despite this, Ukraine is gradually shifting exports toward alternative markets, including the Middle East, North Africa, and Asia. Analysts expect the country to strengthen its position as a key global grain supplier in the MY 2026/27.
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Source : UkrAgroConsult
