Global crop outlook raises wheat, edible oil concerns for Bangladesh
Bangladesh’s heavy reliance on imported wheat, soybeans and edible oils leaves domestic prices vulnerable to global costs, freight, exchange rates and disruptions. USDA forecasts lower 2026/27 wheat production but record oilseed output. Strong rice production offers some protection, while economists urge greater domestic food production.
Heavy dependence on imported essential commodities, including wheat, soybeans, crude soybean oil and palm oil, could expose Bangladesh to domestic price shocks, according to the latest US Department of Agriculture (USDA) outlook.
The USDA’s August 2026 World Agricultural Production and related commodity reports point to a mixed global crop outlook, with some major producers expecting strong harvests while others face production setbacks linked to heat, drought and adverse weather conditions.
Global wheat production for the 2026/27 marketing year is projected at 819.3 million tonnes, down from 843.4 million tonnes in 2025/26, according to the USDA.
The development is particularly important for Bangladesh, as the country remains heavily dependent on imports to meet domestic wheat demand.
Economist and researcher Dr Jahangir Alam Khan told the Daily Sun that Bangladesh would have to pay higher prices in international markets if global commodity prices remain high, putting additional pressure on the country’s budget and potentially limiting its ability to import sufficient quantities.
“If imports fall short, it could have two major effects domestically,” he said.
“First, it will create a food security problem. Second, domestic prices will rise significantly. As a result, food inflation will increase further,” he said.
“For the past four years, we have been experiencing high food inflation. According to the World Bank, we are in the red zone in terms of food inflation. If food inflation rises further, our stay in the red zone will naturally be prolonged,” he added.
“The country remains heavily dependent on imported soybeans, crude soybean oil and palm oil, leaving domestic prices exposed not only to global commodity prices but also to freight and import costs and exchange-rate movements,” he said.
“In such a situation, our biggest need is to become as self-sufficient as possible in food production. For that, we need to focus on domestic production and provide greater support to domestic producers. We need to increase subsidies so that domestic production can grow and our dependence on the world food market can be reduced,” the economist said.
USDA projections put Bangladesh’s wheat imports at about 7.6 million tonnes in 2025/26, placing the country among the world’s major wheat-importing nations.
The European Union, one of the world’s major wheat-producing regions, is expected to produce 134.2 million tonnes of wheat in 2026/27, around 8% below the previous year’s record.
Its wheat yield is forecast at 5.66 tonnes per hectare, down 7% from last year’s record. Prolonged heat and dryness in western Europe have already affected crop prospects, with France’s production estimate cut by 5% from the previous month.
Brazil is facing an even sharper decline. Its 2026/27 wheat production is forecast at 6.1 million tonnes, down 23% from the previous year and 28% below its five-year average. Lower margins and high input costs, particularly fertiliser prices, have discouraged planting, while the developing El Niño is adding to production risks.
Russia’s wheat production is projected at 88.5 million tonnes, while Kazakhstan’s forecast has been raised to 16 million tonnes on the back of favourable weather. India and Pakistan are projected to produce 121 million tonnes and 29 million tonnes, respectively.
This means the immediate concern for Bangladesh is not necessarily a global shortage of wheat, but the country’s exposure to where supplies are available and at what cost.
Freight rates, exchange-rate movements, geopolitical tensions, export restrictions and sudden weather-related production losses could all affect the cost and availability of imported wheat.
Rice offers greater protection
Bangladesh is in a stronger position when it comes to rice, as it is one of the world’s major rice-producing countries.
USDA data put Bangladesh’s milled rice production at 36.6 million tonnes in 2024/25, with production projected at 37.65 million tonnes for 2025/26.
India and China remain the world’s two largest rice producers, with their 2026/27 production projected at around 150 million tonnes and 147 million tonnes, respectively.
For Bangladesh, strong domestic rice production remains an important buffer against international food-market shocks. However, that protection could weaken if floods, excessive rainfall, drought, salinity, pests or extreme heat reduce domestic yields.
Global oilseed output rises
The USDA outlook also carries an important message for Bangladesh’s edible-oil market.
Global oilseed production is forecast at a record 721.02 million tonnes in 2026/27, up from around 700 million tonnes in 2025/26. Soybean production alone is projected at 442.25 million tonnes, with Brazil and the United States expected to produce 186 million tonnes and 122.99 million tonnes, respectively.
Canada’s rapeseed production is forecast at a record 22.5 million tonnes, while Argentina’s sunflowerseed production is projected at a record 8 million tonnes for the next crop.
For Bangladesh, however, increased global oilseed production does not automatically mean cheaper edible oil.
Bangladesh already uses government procurement and international tenders to secure wheat supplies. According to the USDA’s Bangladesh office, the government planned to import 700,000 tonnes of wheat in MY 2025/26 and ultimately procured approximately that volume, primarily from the United States.
The global availability of a commodity does not necessarily translate into lower prices in Bangladesh, as domestic prices can be affected by exchange-rate movements, freight costs and inefficiencies in domestic distribution.
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Source : Daily Sun
