Russia could cut wheat exports threefold in September
Russia’s September 2026 wheat exports could drop drastically to 1.6–2 million tons due to Black Sea port tensions, rising logistics costs, and higher export duties. Consequently, Russia may suspend floating duties through 2026, while farmers have reduced total wheat planting area to 25.7 million hectares.
Russia’s wheat exports in September 2026 could fall to just 1.6–2 mln tons from 4.9 mln tons in the same month last year. At the lower end of the forecast, shipments would decline roughly threefold. Export volumes will largely depend on the ability of Black Sea and Baltic ports to handle shipments, according to the Rusagrotrans analytical center.
Russia exported around 2.1 mln tons of wheat in August, with the vast majority of shipments handled by rail. The situation in the Azov-Black Sea basin remains tense, with no clear signs of stabilization. Against this backdrop, Russian exporters are increasingly forced to rely on alternative and more expensive routes.
Another challenge for exports is the return of Russia’s floating grain export duty. After remaining at zero in the first half of August, the wheat duty jumped to RUB 1,012.1/t within a week, while the corn duty rose to RUB 607.3/t. The increase followed higher global and indicative prices, while Russian exporters’ transportation costs have already risen by an estimated 25–36%.
Amid mounting export difficulties, Russia’s Agriculture Ministry is considering suspending the floating grain export duty until the end of 2026. Industry associations support the proposed moratorium, arguing that the combination of higher logistics costs and the export duty is making some shipments economically unviable.
The deterioration in grain market conditions has also affected planting decisions. According to revised Rosstat data, Russia’s spring wheat area for the 2026 harvest fell to 9.68 mln ha from 11.1 mln ha a year earlier, the lowest level since the 1970s. The country’s total wheat area declined to 25.7 mln ha from 26.9 mln ha, as farmers shifted some land toward more profitable oilseed crops.
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Source : Ukr Agro Consult
