UK records declining grain stocks at the end of the 2025/26 season
United Kingdom cereal stocks for 2025/26 are now forecast below earlier estimates and last year’s levels due to stronger domestic demand, especially from bioethanol production. Wheat, barley and oat inventories tightened, reducing supply buffers ahead of the 2026 harvest and increasing weather-related market sensitivity.
The latest AHDB estimates of the UK’s cereal supply and demand balance indicate lower grain stocks at the end of the 2025/26 season than previously forecast in March. Wheat, barley, and oat stocks are all now expected to come in below earlier projections, as well as below last year’s levels.
The downward revision is driven by stronger domestic demand, particularly from the bioethanol sector and increased industrial use. The restart of bioethanol production at Ensus has further boosted wheat demand, alongside higher usage for animal feed and starch production.
Under the updated outlook, UK wheat stocks are projected at 1.919 million tonnes, down by 235,000 tonnes from March estimates. Barley stocks are forecast at 1.266 million tonnes, while oat stocks are expected to fall to 87,000 tonnes — the lowest level since the 2012/13 season.
Analysts note that reduced end-of-season inventories leave less of a buffer ahead of the 2026 harvest, increasing sensitivity to weather conditions and harvest timing. Despite the tightening trend, overall stocks remain broadly close to five-year averages, although some market participants report tighter-than-usual conditions.
AHDB also highlights a degree of uncertainty in the figures due to survey-based data collection and variability in farm-level stock estimates. Additional pressure comes from weather impacts on crop growth and the price gap between old and new season grain, which influences storage and supply decisions.
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Source : Ukr Agro Consult
