Russia’s wheat export tax could increase import costs for African buyers
Russia reinstated its floating wheat export tax at 370.1 rubles/tonne after export prices exceeded the trigger threshold. With global wheat supplies tightening and Russia remaining the top exporter, higher export taxes could raise international wheat prices, particularly impacting major African importers.
Russia reinstated its floating wheat export tax on July 8 after a nearly three-month suspension. The duty has been set at 370.1 rubles/t (about $4.9/t) and will remain in effect at least until July 15, when it may be revised. The tax was reintroduced after the indicative export price of Russian wheat rose to $239.4/t, exceeding the government threshold that automatically triggers the levy.
Russia has operated its floating export tax system since 2021. The duty is recalculated weekly based on export contract prices and equals 70% of the difference between the government reference price and the indicative export price. When export prices rise above the threshold, the tax increases automatically, while it can fall to zero when prices decline.
The move comes as the global wheat market is expected to tighten in the 2026/27 marketing year. According to the USDA, global wheat production is forecast at 820 mln tons, down 3% from the previous season, while consumption is projected at 824.5 mln tons, remaining above production. Global wheat trade is also expected to decline by about 6% to 213.3 mln tons.
Under these conditions, any restriction on exports from major suppliers could add further upward pressure to international wheat prices. With Russia forecast to export 47 mln tons of wheat in 2026/27, it is expected to remain the world’s largest wheat exporter, making changes to its export policy closely watched by importing countries.
African countries are likely to be the most affected, as many have significantly increased purchases of Russian wheat in recent years. According to Russia’s Agroexport agency, members of the East African Community increased imports of Russian wheat by 26% to 3.5 mln tons in the 2025/26 marketing year. Tanzania, Kenya, Egypt, and Sudan remain among Russia’s key African customers.
Analysts note that the current export tax is relatively modest, but it will automatically increase if export prices continue to rise. This could make Russian wheat more expensive for overseas buyers and provide additional support to global wheat prices during the 2026/27 season.
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Source : Ukr Agro Consult
