IGC sees grains output falling in 2026-27
The IGC forecasts global grain production at 2.42 billion tonnes in 2026/27, down 2.7% year-on-year due to lower maize and wheat output. Consumption is expected to reach a record high, stocks to decline, while soybean production will hit a record 441 million tonnes.
LONDON, ENGLAND — The second largest global grains crop in history is anticipated in marketing year 2026-27, but the International Grains Council (IGC), in its latest Grain Market Report, sees it dropping by 2.7% (69 million tonnes) from last year’s record of 2.49 billion tonnes.
Much of the fall is reflected in smaller anticipated maize (corn) and wheat crops, but with oats, sorghum and rye outturns also seen lower, the Council said.
The forecast for global maize and wheat production is virtually unchanged from the IGC’s projection in June. Maize output is pegged at 821 million tonnes, 23 million lower than the previous year, and wheat production is seen falling 37 million tonnes year on year to 1.306 billion tonnes.
Consumption is forecast to edge to a new peak, and amid tighter supplies, carryover stocks could shrink by 26 million tonnes, to 610 million, the IGC said.
Tied mainly to expected smaller wheat and barley shipments to Near East Asia and North Africa, global grain trade is projected to decline by 17 million tonnes, to 450 million.
“Sizeable availabilities should support grain shipments from the major Black Sea suppliers, but the outlook is far less certain than a month ago due to intensified Russia-Ukraine hostilities and the resulting disruption to export logistics,” the IGC said.
The IGC sees world soybean output increasing by 10 million tonnes year on year, reaching a fresh peak of 441 million tonnes on larger Brazilian and US crops.
“Given the backdrop of record availabilities amid rising demand for derivatives across key end use sectors, global utilization is seen at a record (445 million tonnes),” the Council said.
Soybean trade is predicted to increase by 2% year on year due to higher demand in Asia.
World rice output is projected to decline by about 1% year on year due to smaller crops in Asia and the Americas, while consumption is forecast to rise 1% on increased food demand in Asia and Africa.
Linked to recent strength in soybeans, wheat and maize markets, the IGC Grains and Oilseeds Price Index (GOI) climbed by 7% in the period since the June report. The GOI is nearly 12% higher than it was in July 2025.
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Source : World-Grain.com
