12% increase in global sunflower crop to pressure sunflower oil prices
Global sunflower oil prices remain under pressure as 2026/27 sunflower seed production is forecast 12% higher at over 62 million tonnes. Weak Indian, European and Turkish demand has driven Ukrainian oil prices down $150/t, with further declines possible.
The global sunflower oil market remains under pressure due to weak demand and expectations of a significant increase in sunflower seed supply in the new season. Over the past two weeks, the price of Ukrainian sunflower oil on a CPT basis has fallen by $150/t to around $1,140/t, according to Serhii Repetskyi, co-founder and partner at Sunstone Brokers. Prices in destination markets declined less sharply, by around $50–60/t.
Prospects for a larger crop are adding fundamental pressure to the market. Global sunflower seed production in 2026/27 is forecast at more than 62 mln tons, around 12% higher than last season. With such a substantial increase in supply, market participants expect further pressure on sunflower oil prices.
Buyers in India and Europe are currently taking a wait-and-see approach, anticipating more attractive prices. Indian demand for sunflower oil has also weakened in favor of alternative vegetable oils. Sunflower oil imports in August were expected at 180 thsd tons, down 28% from July, while soyoil imports were projected to reach a record high.
Demand from Turkey also remains weak. The country’s exports of refined sunflower oil have declined, reducing processors’ demand for crude oil. At the same time, Turkish companies are actively purchasing and processing sunflower seed. Turkey and India have paused purchases after earlier buying, while Russia is offering sunflower oil more actively at lower prices.
Lower sunflower oil prices are already affecting Ukraine’s sunflower seed market. Farmer selling increased sharply at the beginning of the week, prompting some large processors to lower their purchasing prices. Further market developments will depend on the pace of new-crop arrivals and a recovery in sunflower oil demand from key importers.
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Source : UkrAgroConsult
