USDA raises Philippine rice import forecast amid persistent crop deficit
The USDA projects Philippine rice imports will reach 5.7 million metric tons in 2027 to offset domestic production shortfalls caused by dry weather and high fertilizer costs, while steady population growth keeps consumption high at 17.6 million metric tons.
The country’s rice imports are projected to expand further and reach 5.7 million metric tons (MT) in 2027 amid continued challenges in local production, according to the United States Department of Agriculture (USDA).
In its latest Grain and Feed Update, the USDA said the Philippines is expected to import an additional 100,000 MT of rice in the coming year, up from its initial estimate of 5.6 million MT.
The revised figure is an increase of nearly four percent from the record 5.5 million MT in rice imports projected for this year. It also exceeds the Department of Agriculture’s (DA) target range of 3.8 million MT to four million MT for next year, which relies on a best-case scenario.
The USDA noted that higher import volumes will offset an anticipated domestic production shortfall and fulfill the need to build buffer stocks to safeguard local supply.
The report estimates that domestic milled rice production will reach 12.25 million MT in marketing year 2026 to 2027, down from the previous year’s 12.36 million MT.
The international agency attributed the decline to drier weather during the May-to-June planting season, compounded by elevated fertilizer costs. Based on DA estimates, local output could fall by as much as 700,000 MT this year due to the severe impact of El Niño alone.
Meanwhile, domestic consumption of milled rice is expected to remain steady at 17.60 million MT both this year and next, driven largely by continuous population growth. The USDA said sustained demand for the household staple is keeping consumption robust, even as higher retail prices continue to press household budgets.
Data from the Bureau of Plant Industry (BPI) showed that the country imported 3.67 million MT in the first eight months of the year, a nearly 25 percent increase from 2.95 million MT during the same period last year. For the full year, the DA expects imports to reach around 5.0 million MT, lower than the USDA’s 5.5 million MT projection.
Vietnam remains the Philippines’ largest supplier of rice, accounting for 2.65 million MT, or 72 percent of total imports, during the eight-month period, BPI data showed.
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Source : Manila Bulletin
