Indonesia’s palm oil exports could fall to lowest level since 2016 in 2027
Indonesia’s palm oil exports are projected to decline to their lowest level since 2016 in 2027 due to lower production and rising biodiesel demand. Reduced output, stronger domestic consumption and El Niño risks could tighten global supplies, potentially pushing palm oil prices above soyoil and reshaping edible oil market dynamics.
Indonesia’s palm oil exports could fall by 14.9% year-on-year in 2027 to 26.5 mln tons. This would be the lowest level since 2016, according to the Indonesian Palm Oil Association.
The expected decline will be driven by a combination of lower production and stronger domestic demand. Indonesia’s palm oil output is forecast to fall by 3.7% to 56.6 mln tons in 2027.
At the same time, palm oil demand from the biodiesel sector is projected to rise to a record 17.4 mln tons, up 18.5% from a year earlier.
El Niño remains an additional supply risk. Drier weather could reduce oil palm yields and further tighten the volumes available for export.
With supplies tightening, palm oil could trade at a premium to soyoil in 2027, as it did in 2024. This could affect price competition among major edible oils on the global market
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Source : UkrAgroConsult – World-class agricultural consulting
