Sugar opening stock falls to decade-low 3.75 MT; export ban may continue
India’s 2026-27 sugar season opened with a decade-low stock of 3.75 million tonnes due to lower prior production, driving retail prices up 20% year-on-year. This tight inventory may prompt the government to extend export restrictions beyond September 30.
Sugar mills began the 2026-27 season with opening stocks of around 3.75 million tonnes (MT), the lowest level in more than a decade, amid lower production in the previous season, industry sources said.
The tight opening inventory has raised concerns over domestic sugar availability and increased the possibility of the government continuing restrictions on exports. The export ban imposed in May 2026 expired on September 30, Financial Express reported.
Opening stocks on October 1, 2025, stood at around 5 MT.
The carry-forward stock is important for meeting domestic demand during October and November, before sugarcane crushing gathers pace across major producing states.
Sugar production declined to around 28.1 MT in 2025-26 from 35.8 MT in 2021-22, according to industry estimates. During the same period, sugar consumption increased marginally to around 28.7 MT from 27.3 MT.
The government has taken several measures to augment domestic supplies and contain prices. Last month, it permitted duty-free imports of 1 MT of raw sugar, the first such move in about a decade. It also tightened measures against hoarding and imposed stock limits on bulk consumers.
India had permitted exports of around 1 MT of sugar during the previous year. In May 2026, however, the government restricted exports until September 30, 2026. Industry sources said the restrictions are likely to continue amid concerns over domestic availability.
The government last month attributed the sharp rise in sugar prices to lower domestic production caused by weather-related damage, increased demand ahead of the festive season, high international prices and hoarding by some producers.
The sugar industry, however, has maintained that there is no shortage of sugar in the country. It attributed the price increase to speculative buying by traders and bulk consumers, along with production being lower than earlier estimates.
The average retail price of sugar stood at Rs 56.02 per kg on Wednesday, up 20% year-on-year, according to the Department of Consumer Affairs’ price monitoring cell. However, prices have declined 12% over the past month.
Meanwhile, the Indian Sugar and Bio-Energy Manufacturers Association (ISMA) revised its estimate of gross sugar production, excluding diversion for ethanol, to around 30.9 MT from its earlier estimate of 34.5 MT.
An ISMA official attributed the downward revision mainly to weather-related factors, lower cane yields and reduced sugar recovery. Higher crushing in Maharashtra and red-rot-related varietal issues in Uttar Pradesh were also cited among the factors affecting production.
The government has ruled out sugar diversion for ethanol as a reason for the recent increase in domestic sugar prices.
According to a government note, the share of sugar diverted for ethanol production declined from around 12% in 2022-23 to around 9% in 2025-26. It also noted that nearly three-fourths of ethanol produced in India now comes from grains, particularly maize.
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Source : ChiniMandi
