Rice exports may take a hit next year on lower surplus
India’s rice exports are projected to fall 4% to 24 million tonnes in 2027 as lower supplies and rising domestic prices curb shipments. USDA forecasts 2026-27 production to decline 4.5% to 147 million tonnes, amid El Niño risks and a 3.7% drop in paddy area.
India’s rice exports next year are projected to decline by 4% to 24 million tonne (MT) in 2027 due to lower shipments of broken and white rice, the United States Department of Agriculture (USDA) said in a report.
The USDA’s global market analysis attributed fall in India’s rice exports, which has the biggest share of over 40% in the global grain trade, to rising prices amid lower exportable supplies.
“A strong El Niño weather pattern is causing bad monsoons, which is expected to drop India’s rice production by 4.5% to 147 million tonne (MT) in the current crop year (2026-27),” Suraj Agarwal, co-founder & CEO, Rice Villa, a rice exporting and marketing firm, told FE.
The rice production for 2026-27 crop year would be for the first time grain output is projected to reduce since the 2015-16 crop year. In the 2025-26 crop year, India emerged as the biggest rice-producing country at 154 MT. Agarwal said the USDA cutting global rice trade forecast for next year by 1.3 MT, it would impact supplies and prices as India supplies 40% to 45% of the world’s rice exports.
Shipment of grain rose marginally by 2.17% to $4.81 billion during April-August, 2026-27 on year as supply disruption and high freight due to West Asia conflict continues to impact shipments.
Sources said rising domestic prices of rice, on account of lower output, are expected to be impacted and are likely to slow down exports in the current fiscal.
The retail prices of rice increased to Rs 46.92/kg on Sunday, a 10% increase over the previous year. An official said the government currently holds over 38 MT of rice stock against a buffer requirement of 10.25 MT for October 1; this stock would be offloaded under the open market sale scheme to curb the price rise.
However, prices of premium non-basmati rice variants such as Sona Masoori, Ponni, and Swarna have increased by 10-25% compared to last year due to lower area under paddy and rainfall deficiency, especially in southern India.
India exports both aromatic and long-grain Basmati and non-Basmati varieties to over 140 countries, across Asia, the Middle East, Europe, and the U S. In several countries it faces competition from rice exporting countries including Pakistan and Thailand.
Area under paddy has declined by 3.7% to 42.92 million hectares (Mha) in the current kharif season, compared to previous season. A major decrease in paddy area reported in states including Karnataka (0.46 Mha), Telangana (0.43 Mha), Andhra Pradesh (0.18 Mha), Tamil Nadu (0.15 Mha).
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Source : The Financial Express
