Philippines has 75 days’ worth of rice, but stocks limited
The Philippines has rice stocks sufficient for 75 days of consumption, but government reserves cover only around nine days, limiting emergency response capacity. Industry leaders urged stronger National Food Authority procurement, warning that imports could reach 5.4–5.5 million tonnes in 2026 and pressure local palay prices.
The Philippines has enough rice to cover about 75 days of consumption, but most stocks are held by private traders, millers, importers and households, limiting the government’s ability to respond to emergencies, rice industry leaders said.
Federation of Free Farmers chairperson Leonardo Montemayor and Philippine Rice Industry Stakeholders Movement (PRISM) co-founder Orlando Manuntag said the national inventory should be distinguished from the much smaller buffer stock controlled by the National Food Authority (NFA).
Montemayor estimated that government-held stocks could cover fewer than 10 days of consumption. He cited a December 2024 amendment to the rice tariffication law that he said requires the NFA to maintain a 15-day buffer, questioning whether the government has consistently met that requirement.
“If a volcano erupts, or a flood, or something like that, where will the government get rice if they’re looking for stocks?” Montemayor said, warning that the government may have to buy rice from private suppliers at prevailing market prices during emergencies.
Government data cited by Montemayor showed rice imports reaching about 4.2 million tons by end-September. If monthly arrivals average 400,000 tons in the last quarter, imports could reach 5.4 million to 5.5 million tons for 2026, nearing the US Department of Agriculture’s (USDA) projection of 5.7 million tons.
While imports help sustain the country’s 75-day inventory, heavy arrivals could put pressure on local palay prices, particularly during harvest periods. The NFA does not import rice under its current mandate and instead builds government reserves by buying palay from local farmers.
Private sector estimates place NFA inventory at nine days of national consumption at an average of 35,000 MT or more per day.
Manuntag said the NFA buys dry palay at around P29 to P30 a kilo, compared with P27 to P28 offered by private traders. Wet palay fetches about P20 to P21 a kilo because of its higher moisture content.
Despite the NFA’s higher buying price for dry palay, farmers may favor private traders because government procurement involves longer waiting periods and stricter requirements, Montemayor said.
Many farmers and cooperatives lack mechanical dryers, while delivery scheduling can take weeks and quality checks can result in rejected palay, he added.
These limit the NFA’s ability to build reserves, leaving the government with less rice available for calamity assistance and market intervention.
Strengthening buffer stocks is particularly important as the country prepares for a possible El Niño that could affect agricultural production.
The industry is also exploring cooperation with the US Rice Federation for possible rice exportation to the Philippines and to diversify potential supply sources.
Industry leaders said that while the 75-day national inventory provides a cushion, stronger government reserves and more effective local procurement are still essential to securing rice supplies during emergencies.
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Source : Manila Standard
