Global rice prices hit 2024 highs as supply concerns mount; wheat, corn rally
Global grain prices have surged in 2026, with rice futures rising 80%, wheat 32% and barley 42%, driven by weather risks, lower yields and supply disruptions. India’s rice production may fall by 7 million tonnes to 147 million tonnes, intensifying domestic and international price pressures.
Global grain prices have risen sharply in 2026, with rice, wheat and barley recording significant gains amid concerns over weather conditions, lower crop yields and supply disruptions in key producing regions.
Global rice futures have climbed 80% so far this year, reaching their highest levels since July 2024, while export prices across Asia have climbed to one-year highs.
Wheat and barley prices have gained around 32% and 42%, respectively.
India’s rice production is expected to decline by 7 million tonnes to 147 million tonnes this season. Lower sowing acreage and damage to crop yields are among the factors affecting output. Sowing has already been 3.5% lower, adding to concerns over domestic supplies.
India accounts for nearly 40% of global rice exports, making any significant change in its production an important factor for international markets.
Rice prices rise in India
Domestic rice prices have also increased over the past year, although the rise has been less pronounced than in international markets.
Retail prices of basic rice varieties have risen by 10-20% over the past year, while fine and premium varieties have become 15-25% more expensive. Basmati rice prices are currently above ₹100 per kg.
Several factors are contributing to the increase in rice prices. Deficient monsoon rainfall across parts of Asia has raised concerns over crop production, while lower paddy acreage has added to domestic supply pressures.
Higher minimum support prices (MSP), rising cultivation and logistics costs, and demand from alternative uses, including the ethanol industry, have also supported prices. Seasonal demand during the festival and wedding periods has added to the pressure.
Other Asian markets are also seeing higher prices. Rice prices in Vietnam have reached two-month highs, while prices in Thailand are at one-month highs.
Wheat, corn and barley prices also climb
The rally has extended beyond rice, with wheat and other grains recording strong gains amid weather-related risks and supply disruptions.
Wheat futures have climbed to their highest levels since August 2023. Disruptions to logistics in the Black Sea region and dry weather in North America ahead of the planting season have supported prices.
Corn prices have reached three-year highs as hot and dry conditions in the European Union raise concerns over crop prospects. Recent US estimates have also pointed to weaker yield prospects, while trade-related uncertainty has added to price pressures.
Barley and oats have also recorded substantial gains, reflecting the broader rise across global grain markets.
Global grain prices have risen sharply so far this year, with several essential food commodities recording double-digit percentage gains.
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Source : CNBC Tv18
