Even an elevenfold increase in Baltic port shipments fails to offset Russia’s loss of Black Sea export capacity
Russia’s grain shipments fell fourfold year-on-year to 1.135 million tonnes during October 1–20, 2026, as Black Sea disruptions outweighed an elevenfold rise in Baltic port exports. Wheat shipments plunged, while higher transport costs and fewer exporters and destinations continued to constrain grain exports despite a partial recovery.
In the first 20 days of October 2026, Russia’s grain shipments through ports fell fourfold compared with the same period last year, to 1.135 mln tons from 4.515 mln tons. Despite a sharp increase in exports through Baltic ports, the country failed to offset the decline in shipments via the Black Sea. However, shipments recovered somewhat in the second ten-day period of October, reaching 700 thsd tons compared with 435 thsd tons in the first ten days, indicating a partial recovery in export activity.
Wheat shipments recorded the steepest decline, falling to 1 mln tons from 4 mln tons a year earlier. Barley exports totaled just 61 thsd tons, down 5.7 times year-on-year, while corn shipments dropped 2.2 times to 51 thsd tons. The geography of wheat exports also narrowed significantly, with the number of destination countries falling from 29 to 15. Egypt remained the largest buyer, although shipments to the country declined threefold to 326.7 thsd tons. Deliveries to Türkiye plunged almost sevenfold to 43.1 thsd tons.
Amid restrictions on Black Sea shipping, Russian grain exports have increasingly shifted toward Baltic ports. From October 1 to 20, shipments through these ports increased elevenfold to 875 thsd tons. The largest volumes were handled by St. Petersburg at 308 thsd tons, Ust-Luga at 294 thsd tons, and Vysotsk at 273 thsd tons. Meanwhile, grain shipments through Novorossiysk totaled just 59.6 thsd tons compared with 1.7 mln tons a year earlier. Thus, even the rapid expansion of Baltic exports failed to compensate for the collapse in shipments through Russia’s main Black Sea port.
Logistical difficulties have also been accompanied by a reduction in the number of exporters and shipping routes. During the first 20 days of October, only 25 companies exported wheat compared with 46 a year earlier, while the number of ports handling shipments declined from 38 to 15. Redirecting grain flows to the Baltic region has also increased transportation costs due to longer rail delivery distances. Russian wheat was quoted at approximately $210/t FOB Novorossiysk, compared with around $270/t FOB Vysotsk.
Despite some recovery in shipments during the second ten-day period of October, Russia’s grain exports remain severely constrained by logistical challenges. Baltic ports have demonstrated potential for further increases in handling capacity, but their use involves higher transportation costs and cannot fully replace Black Sea export routes. If these restrictions persist, they could continue to limit Russian grain exports, increase pressure on the domestic market, and reduce farmers’ revenues.
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Source : UkrAgroConsult
