India faces potential sugar supply crunch in November as UP rains delay crushing operations
Rainfall forecasts in Uttar Pradesh threaten to delay sugarcane harvesting and mill operations, potentially reducing India’s November sugar output. With opening stocks relatively low and November demand estimated at 23 lakh tonnes, prolonged disruptions could tighten domestic supplies and increase reliance on Maharashtra production.
Rainfall forecast across Uttar Pradesh, India’s largest sugarcane-producing state, threatens to disrupt harvesting and delay the start of crushing operations at several mills, potentially curbing India’s sugar production in November and tightening domestic supplies, The Hindu Businessline reported.
The expected disruption comes at a time when India is entering the 2026-27 sugar season with relatively low opening stocks. Delays in Uttar Pradesh could increase pressure on Maharashtra mills to compensate for the production shortfall.
India’s sugar demand for November is estimated at around 23 lakh tonnes (LT), against projected carryover stocks of just 15 LT at the end of October. The country began the season with closing stocks of approximately 36 LT from the 2025-26 season, according to the Indian Sugar & Bio-Energy Manufacturers Association (ISMA).
Crushing has commenced at 107 mills nationwide, including 87 in Maharashtra, which have produced around 4 LT of sugar, compared with 0.6 LT during the corresponding period last year. Industry estimates suggest October production could reach nearly 6 LT.
However, rainfall-related delays in Uttar Pradesh could affect the pace of production in November, when crushing activity is expected to gather momentum. Several mills in western Uttar Pradesh had planned to start operations around October 20, but wet fields have prevented farmers from harvesting cane and discouraged mills from procuring crops with high moisture content.
The India Meteorological Department (IMD) has forecast isolated very heavy rainfall in eastern Uttar Pradesh during October 29-30, with some districts likely to receive up to 40 mm. Western Uttar Pradesh may also experience scattered rainfall between October 29 and 31.
Sugarcane breeder Bakshi Ram said heavy rainfall could further postpone harvesting, particularly in low-lying areas of eastern Uttar Pradesh, where farmers must wait for water to recede before entering their fields. Mills may also delay crushing because processing wet cane could adversely affect sugar recovery.
The production uncertainty could further strain the domestic supply position. The government allocated 27 LT of sugar for domestic sales in October, and if the entire quota is lifted, stocks available for November could decline to around 15 LT, leaving the market increasingly dependent on fresh production.
Rising domestic sugar prices could, however, encourage refiners to release imported stocks. The government had permitted two refiners to sell 2.65 LT of imported sugar in the domestic market, but sales remained below 60,000 tonnes as higher import costs made local sales commercially unattractive.
Any prolonged disruption to crushing in Uttar Pradesh could therefore constrain India’s November sugar output, increase dependence on production from Maharashtra and other states, and add pressure to domestic sugar availability.
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Source : ChiniMandi
