Australia’s wheat totals fall as 2026-27 barley production grows
Australia is forecast to produce a record 17.7 million tonnes of barley in 2026-27, up 4.4% year on year, while wheat output may decline 11% to 32 million tonnes. Favourable weather, higher nitrogen costs and El Niño concerns are encouraging a shift towards barley cultivation.
CANBERRA, AUSTRALIA — Australia is poised to have a second successive record barley crop in 2026-27 while wheat production is expected to drop 11%, according to a report from the Foreign Agricultural Service (FAS) of the US Department of Agriculture.
Favorable growing conditions and a shift in planting from wheat to barley contributed to the outcome, the FAS said, as did higher nitrogen fertilizer prices associated with the ongoing situation in the Middle East. The prospect of El Niño-related moisture stress also supported a shift from wheat to barley, it said, especially in eastern Australia.
Wheat production is forecast at 32 million tonnes, down approximately 4 million tonnes from the previous year but about 10% above the 10-year average.
Barley production is forecast at 17.7 million tonnes, up approximately 700,000 tonnes (4.4%) year on year and about 40% above the 10-year average.
Wheat exports are forecast to be 25 million tonnes, the third highest on record and well above the 10-year average of 20.4 million tonnes, the FAS said.
Export prices for a large part of 2025-26 have been subdued, encouraging growers to hold back stored supplies, it said. World wheat prices in recent months have improved and futures prices for 2026-27 are about 15% above the previous 10-year average.
“If improved wheat prices are realized across MY 2026-27 compared to those for MY 2025-26, it is anticipated that this will encourage growers and exporters to expand their export volumes in the forecast year with the support of built-up stocks from the prior year,” the FAS said.
Barley exports are projected at 13 million tonnes, which would be the second consecutive record year of trade, far above the 10-year average of 7.3 million tonnes.
The primary driver of strong Australian barley export demand is China. When China removed the 80% tariff on Australian barley in August 2023, imports soared, the FAS said.
China has imported 75% to 80% of Australia’s overall barley exports at increasing volumes.
“The competition for Australian barley by China has resulted in a decline in demand from Japan, but there has been a reemergence of demand from Saudi Arabia,” the FAS said. “At this point there are no signs of waning demand from China for Australian barley, but due to the level of exposure to this market it is a significant risk for the Australian barley industry.
To Read more about Wheat News continue reading Agriinsite.com
Source : World Grain.Com
