Bangladesh : Imports to rise as irrigation crisis threatens Boro output
Bangladesh faces rising rice import dependence as Boro crop output declines due to irrigation issues, fertiliser shortages, and higher costs. With demand increasing, even a slight production drop is pushing prices higher, raising food security concerns and likely forcing the government to boost imports to stabilise supply.
The country is heading towards increased rice imports as irrigation disruptions, fertiliser shortages and rising production costs threaten to reduce output from the vital Boro crop, intensifying pressure on already high domestic prices and food security.
With rice demand continuing to grow – partly driven by government food distribution programmes – even a modest fall in production is expected to have an immediate impact on supply. Boro rice, which accounts for more than half of the country’s annual output, is particularly critical in this regard.
According to the latest “Grain and Feed Annual Report” by the United States Department of Agriculture (USDA), total rice production is projected to decline by 0.7% in the marketing year from May 2026 to April 2027 (MY27). The drop is primarily attributed to lower yields in the ongoing Boro season, caused by disruptions in irrigation and reduced fertiliser use linked to shortages of fuel and key inputs.
Boro production, estimated at 20.5 million tonnes in both MY25 and MY26, is forecast to fall to 20.2 million tonnes in MY27. While the decline appears marginal, its implications are significant in a country where rice underpins both food security and rural livelihoods.
To offset the shortfall, rice imports are expected to rise by 7.1% to 1.5 million tonnes in MY27, up from 1.4 million tonnes the previous year. The government is likely to facilitate imports through international tenders, government-to-government purchases and private sector participation to stabilise supply and prices.
The USDA also expects rice prices to remain elevated throughout much of the coming year, reflecting higher production costs. Farmers across several regions report steadily rising expenses for irrigation, fertilisers and labour, all of which are squeezing margins and limiting input use.
Although the total harvested area is projected to increase slightly to 11.8 million hectares – up 0.4% year-on-year – overall production is forecast at 37.4 million tonnes due to lower yields. The report highlights that irrigation constraints and fertiliser shortages have affected crop development at critical stages.
As of March 2026, limited rainfall has offered some support to Boro cultivation. However, farmers have raised concerns about insufficient diesel supplies to operate shallow and low-lift irrigation pumps, particularly in water-dependent areas.
The Boro crop, transplanted between December and January and harvested from April to May, relies heavily on irrigation. It includes widely cultivated high-yielding varieties such as BRRI Dhan28, BRRI Dhan29, BRRI Dhan47 and BRRI Dhan50, alongside newer varieties like BRRI Dhan84, BRRI Dhan92, BRRI Dhan102 and BRRI Dhan105.
Fertiliser availability has emerged as a major constraint. In several northern districts, particularly in potato-growing areas, farmers reported purchasing urea, potash and phosphate at prices above government-set rates. Heavy fertiliser use in potato cultivation has contributed to shortages for Boro rice, forcing some farmers to apply less than required.
Field observations from the north-west indicate that production costs have been rising consistently, driven by higher irrigation expenses, fertiliser prices and labour wages.
At the same time, rice consumption continues to increase. The USDA forecasts total consumption at 39.1 million tonnes in MY27, up 1.3% from 38.6 million tonnes the previous year. Growth is being driven by population increases and expanding use of rice in the feed industry.
Although per capita consumption has declined over time – from 0.46 kg per day in 2000 to 0.33 kg in 2022, according to the Bangladesh Bureau of Statistics – rice remains the dominant staple. Most consumers prefer parboiled rice, though non-parboiled varieties are favoured in some regions. Rice is also widely used in processed forms such as puffed rice.
Non-food uses are also rising. Broken rice and de-oiled rice bran are increasingly used as low-cost inputs in poultry, cattle and aquaculture feed. A study by the Food Planning and Monitoring Unit (FPMU) found that around 3.5 million tonnes of rice are used annually for household-level animal feed.
In addition, farmers cultivating inbred varieties typically retain part of their harvest as seed, with unofficial estimates putting this at around 500,000 tonnes.
Agro-economist Dr Jahangir Alam warned that declining production would inevitably increase reliance on imports.
“When rice production declines, it naturally puts pressure on food security, forcing the country to rely more on imports,” he said, adding that import requirements could reach 1.5 to 2.0 million tonnes.
“If the market is to remain stable, there will be significant pressure on imports, which will become a major burden on the government. About 54% of total paddy production comes from the Boro season. So when Boro production declines, food supply decreases, leading to a rise in prices.”
He cautioned that higher rice prices could further fuel inflation. “We have already been facing high food inflation over the past four years, and there is a possibility it may rise even further.”
Dr A Jahangir attributed the current situation to both global and domestic factors.
“Due to the ongoing Gulf conflict, there has been a shortage in oil and fertiliser supply. From the beginning of the Boro season, the fertiliser crisis has been severe, and farmers could not always purchase the required amount.”
Fuel shortages have also disrupted irrigation at critical stages. “In many areas crops are at growing or flowering stages, when proper irrigation is essential, but that could not be ensured,” he said.
“Farmers had to stand in long queues, and in many places they brought irrigation equipment but could not use it. In northern regions such as Rajshahi and Rangpur, many systems have become inoperative. In such a situation, production will naturally decline, although the extent remains uncertain.”
As the new marketing year approaches, the combined pressures of constrained supply, rising costs and steady demand are set to test the government’s ability to contain prices and secure adequate supplies.
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Source : Daily Sun
