Brazil increases corn exports, adding pressure on global prices
Brazil’s corn production is forecast to rise 2.8% to 148 million tonnes in MY 2026/27, with exports projected to reach 48 million tonnes. Expanding supplies from Brazil and the United States will intensify global competition, while Black Sea shipping disruptions create additional export opportunities for Brazil.
Brazil continues to strengthen its position in the global corn market, supported by rising production and export shipments. In MY 2026/27, corn production is forecast at 148 mln tons, compared with 144 mln tons a year earlier, an increase of 2.8%. The area planted with second-crop corn (safrinha) expanded by 3.7% to 12.55 mln ha. Meanwhile, exports could rise from 42 mln to 48 mln tons, intensifying competition among major suppliers and putting additional pressure on global prices.
The global market is also being affected by restrictions on corn exports from the Black Sea region, particularly Ukraine, where Russian attacks on port infrastructure and shipping disruptions are limiting grain shipments. At the same time, Russia could lose around 1.5 mln tons of corn exports per quarter due to restrictions in the Azov-Black Sea basin, according to the cited estimates. Against this backdrop, Brazil has additional opportunities to expand its presence in traditional markets served by Black Sea exporters, supported by large production volumes and competitive prices.
The United States is also increasing corn exports, which could rise from 58 mln to 62 mln tons. This is supported by a 2% increase in average yields, from 174.2 to 177.7 bushels per acre. Meanwhile, US wheat production is expected to decline from 52.8 mln to 48.2 mln tons, according to the cited estimates. Thus, while competition and downward price pressure are intensifying in the corn market, tighter wheat supplies could support global wheat prices.
Canada is also expanding its presence in the corn market, although its share remains relatively small. Corn production is forecast at 2.1 mln tons, compared with 1.8 mln tons a year earlier, while exports could increase almost sixfold, from 11.5 thsd to 68 thsd tons. Overall, growing supplies from Brazil, the United States and other countries are intensifying competition in the global corn market, while declining wheat production could help maintain higher prices for the grain.
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Source : UkrAgroConsult
