Brazil may reduce soybean and corn production due to El Niño and fertilizer shortages
Brazil’s soybean and corn production in MY 2026/27 could decline by 2.2% and 4.5%, respectively, according to S&P Global Energy CERA. El Niño-related weather risks and fertilizer supply disruptions linked to the Middle East war threaten yields, although Brazil is expected to remain a leading exporter.
Soybean and corn production in Brazil could decline in the MY 2026/27 due to the impact of El Niño and limited fertilizer availability following the war in the Middle East. According to S&P Global Energy CERA forecasts, soybean output is expected to fall by 2.2% compared with the previous season, while corn production could decline by 4.5%. Despite the anticipated reduction in output, Brazil is expected to remain one of the key suppliers of agricultural products to global markets.
Analysts identify unfavorable weather conditions associated with El Niño and difficulties in fertilizer availability as the main risks to the new crop. Fertilizer supply disruptions following the war in the Middle East could affect production costs and farmers’ ability to maintain high yields.
Brazilian farmers have already started planting soybeans for the MY 2026/27, as well as the first corn crop of the new season. Further progress in planting and crop development will depend on rainfall distribution and access to essential agricultural inputs. Market participants will pay particular attention to weather conditions in the country’s major agricultural regions.
Brazil remains the world’s largest soybean exporter and the second-largest corn supplier. Therefore, even a moderate decline in production of these crops could affect the global supply and demand balance, export competition, and importers’ price expectations. However, the actual impact on trade will depend on domestic consumption, stocks, and harvests in other producing countries.
Despite the projected decline in output, S&P Global Energy CERA analysts expect Brazil to maintain its leading position in global agricultural markets in the 2026/27 season. However, weather risks and fertilizer availability will remain important factors determining the country’s production volumes and export potential.
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Source : UkrAgroConsult
