Brazil’s Center-South sugar output seen falling 5% in 2026-27 despite higher cane crushing: Datagro
Brazil’s Center-South sugar production is forecast to fall 5% to 38.42 million tonnes in 2026-27 despite a 4.8% rise in cane crushing, as excessive rainfall is expected to reduce sugar recovery. Datagro projects ethanol output to increase 10.4% to 37.21 billion litres, prompting greater cane allocation towards biofuel.
Sao Paulo: Sugar production in Brazil’s Center-South region is projected to decline 5% to 38.42 million metric tonnes in the 2026-27 season despite an expected increase in sugarcane crushing, as excessive rainfall is likely to affect sugar recovery and encourage mills to divert more cane towards ethanol production, reported The AgriBiz, citing Datagro.
The region’s sugarcane crushing is forecast to increase 4.8% to 640.5 million metric tonnes during the season. However, total recoverable sugar (ATR), an important measure of sugar yield, is expected to fall 2.2% to 134.8 kg per tonne of cane, Datagro founder and president Plinio Nastari said at the consultancy’s international sugar and ethanol conference on Monday.
He attributed the expected decline in sugar recovery to excessive moisture, which could encourage spittlebug infestations and hamper sugar accumulation in cane.
Despite the lower recoverable sugar content per tonne, the larger cane crop is expected to lift total ATR availability by 2.5% to 86.34 million metric tonnes.
Datagro projects total ethanol production, including corn-based fuel, to rise 10.4% to 37.21 billion litres in 2026/27. Of this, corn-based ethanol is expected to account for 10.15 billion litres, representing 27.2% of Brazil’s total projected output.
The share of sugarcane allocated to sugar production is forecast to decline to 46.7%, compared with 50.4% in 2025-26, reflecting a greater allocation of cane towards ethanol.
Datagro also expects the 2026 harvest to extend later than usual, with mills likely to complete around 96% of crushing operations by the second half of December. Operations are expected to resume earlier in the first quarter of 2027.
Nastari said it was too early to make firm projections for the 2027-28 season, given uncertainties surrounding the relative prices of sugar and ethanol, fuel consumption, crude oil prices and their potential influence on production decisions.
He indicated that the next 12-18 months would be important in determining how these factors shape the industry’s outlook.
Nevertheless, Datagro expects the 2027-28 season to begin on a strong note, supported by advanced crop development, substantial carryover cane left unharvested from the previous season and favourable planting conditions.
Crop quality during the middle third of the season is expected to be closer to average and weaker than in the opening months, as potentially wetter harvesting conditions associated with El Niño and increased weed pressure could affect field performance.
For the final third of the season, Nastari advised caution, pointing to the possibility of a delayed harvest.
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Source : ChiniMandi
