Drought and high fertilizer prices threaten rice production in the Philippines
The Philippines faces potential rice production losses of 700,000 tonnes due to El Niño-driven drought and rising fertilizer costs. Agricultural damage has reached 6.8 billion pesos, while rice reserves cover only 51 days of consumption. Increasing import dependence, particularly on Vietnam, could expose the country to greater supply and price risks.
The Philippines faces growing risks of lower rice production due to severe drought caused by El Niño and a sharp increase in mineral fertilizer prices. As of mid-October 2026, 109 areas across the country had declared a state of calamity, while total agricultural damage from adverse weather conditions was estimated at 6.8 bln pesos (approximately $118 mln). A lack of rainfall and declining irrigation water supplies are negatively affecting rice and vegetable production.
According to the Philippine Department of Agriculture, a strong El Niño could reduce rice production by 700 thsd tons, or approximately 3.5% of the government’s annual production target. The national weather agency estimates a 92% probability that moderate-to-strong El Niño conditions will persist through the end of 2026. Further deterioration in weather conditions could intensify irrigation water shortages and negatively affect crop yields.
Rising mineral fertilizer prices due to supply disruptions in the Persian Gulf region are adding further pressure on farmers. The Philippines imports around 90% of its fertilizer requirements, while international urea prices nearly doubled between February and April 2026. Rice cultivation accounts for approximately 38% of the country’s total fertilizer consumption, meaning higher production costs could force farmers to reduce application rates, creating additional risks for future harvests.
Concerns over domestic rice supplies are increasing as local production declines. According to the cited estimates, government rice reserves cover approximately 51 days of consumption, compared with the desired level of 70–90 days. Meanwhile, experts warn that the combination of drought and high fertilizer prices could have longer-term consequences, as the full impact of rising production costs may become more apparent in the 2027 harvest.
To compensate for insufficient domestic supplies, the Philippines is increasing rice imports. According to the source, purchases had approached 4 mln tons by August 2026, compared with approximately 3.5 mln tons a year earlier. Vietnam remains the main supplier, accounting for around 70–80% of imports. A further decline in production could increase the Philippines’ dependence on foreign supplies and its vulnerability to price fluctuations in the Asian rice market.
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Source : Ukr Agro Consult
