EIA increases forecasts for 2024, 2025 fuel ethanol production
The U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) has raised its 2024 and 2025 forecasts for U.S. ethanol production and blending in its November report. Ethanol production is now expected to reach an average of 1.05 million barrels per day (bpd) in both years, up from previous projections of 1.04 million bpd. Blending levels for 2024 are also anticipated to be higher, averaging 930,000 bpd. Net imports of ethanol are forecasted to remain negative, averaging -120,000 bpd, consistent with previous estimates.
The U.S. Energy Information Administration increased its forecasts for 2024 and 2025 fuel ethanol production in its latest Short-Term Energy Outlook, released Nov. 13. The forecast for 2024 fuel ethanol blending was revised up.
The EIA currently expects U.S. ethanol production to average 1.05 million barrels per day in both 2024 and 2025, up from last month’s forecasts of 1.04 million barrels per day. Fuel ethanol production averaged 1.02 million barrels per day in 2023.
On a quarterly basis, fuel ethanol production is expected to average 1.08 million barrels per day during the final quarter of 2024. Moving into 2025, ethanol production is expected to average 1.05 million barrels per day in the first quarter, 1.04 million barrels per day in the second quarter, 1.05 million barrels per day in the third quarter and 1.06 million barrels per day in the fourth quarter.
Net imports of fuel ethanol are currently expected to average -120,000 barrels per day in 2024, a forecast maintained from the October STEO. The EIA now predicts net imports of fuel ethanol will continue to average -120,000 barrels per day next year, compared to last month’s forecast of -110,000 barrels per day. Net imports of fuel ethanol averaged -90,000 barrels per day in 2023.
Fuel ethanol blending is currently expected to average 930,000 barrels per day in 2024, up from the October forecast of 920,000 barrels per day. The EIA maintained its forecast that fuel ethanol blending would average 930,000 barrels per day next year. Fuel ethanol blending averaged 930,000 barrels per day last year.
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Source Link : Ethanol Producer Magzine
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