El Niño creates conditions for a large harvest in Argentina
Argentina is expected to benefit from intensifying El Niño conditions during the 2026/27 season, with improved rainfall supporting wheat, corn and soybean production. Analysts project a possible 20 million-tonne wheat harvest, while historical El Niño patterns previously boosted soybean and corn yields significantly.
The El Niño weather phenomenon, which threatens crop production in many parts of the world through drought and extreme weather, is expected to have a positive impact on Argentina’s agriculture during the second half of 2026 and the 2026/27 growing season. Climate experts made the assessment following forecasts from the U.S. Climate Prediction Center indicating that El Niño conditions are likely to intensify in the coming months.
El Niño is characterized by warmer-than-normal sea surface temperatures in the central and eastern equatorial Pacific Ocean. While it often reduces rainfall across large parts of Asia and Australia, it typically brings more frequent and abundant rainfall to Argentina, benefiting crop development.
According to meteorologist Germán Heinzenknecht, the entire 2026/27 season is expected to be influenced by El Niño, creating favorable conditions for the country’s major crops. Argentina is one of the world’s leading exporters of soybeans, corn, and wheat, making weather conditions a key factor in production prospects.
The previous strong El Niño episode in the 2015/16 season helped Argentina achieve its second-largest soybean harvest on record at 59.1 million tonnes, while average corn yields were about 7% above the ten-year average, according to official data.
Argentine farmers are currently planting the 2026/27 wheat crop, which the Rosario Board of Trade estimates could reach 20 million tonnes, potentially becoming the country’s third-largest wheat harvest on record. Corn planting is scheduled to begin in September, followed by soybean planting in October.
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Source : Ukr Agro Consult
