Global soybean, rapeseed and sunflower production to rise in 2026/27 — USDA
USDA forecasts global oilseed production at 722.2 million tonnes in 2026/27, up from 701.01 million tonnes, despite a monthly downward revision. Sunflower seed output is projected to rise to 63.62 million tonnes, while record oilseed crushing of 611.89 million tonnes signals stronger processing demand.
Global oilseed production in 2026/27 is forecast by USDA at 722.2 mln tons, up from 701.01 mln tons a season earlier. In particular, soybean, rapeseed and sunflower seed production is expected to increase. At the same time, USDA lowered its overall oilseed production estimate by 1.26 mln tons from the September forecast. The monthly reduction mainly reflects lower estimates for peanuts, palm kernel and rapeseed, partly offset by a higher soybean production forecast.
Global soybean production is forecast at 442.7 mln tons, compared with 429.19 mln tons a season earlier. The estimate was raised by 0.35 mln tons from September on improved prospects in the United States, while forecasts for India and the EU were lowered. Global soybean ending stocks are expected at around 124.3 mln tons.
Global rapeseed production could reach a record 99.57 mln tons, up from 96.04 mln tons in 2025/26. However, USDA cut the forecast by 0.4 mln tons from September, partly due to weaker crop prospects in the EU. The estimate for global rapeseed ending stocks was also reduced to 11.6 mln tons.
The strongest year-on-year growth is expected in the sunflower market. Global sunflower seed production in 2026/27 is forecast at 63.62 mln tons, compared with 55.35 mln tons a season earlier. Sunflower oil production could rise to 23.89 mln tons from 21.11 mln tons, while global exports are expected to increase to 15.97 mln tons from 13.59 mln tons.
For Ukraine, USDA forecasts a sunflower seed crop of 13 mln tons, up from 10.7 mln tons in 2025/26. Sunflower oil production could increase from 4.52 mln to 5.42 mln tons, while exports may rise from 4.04 mln to 5 mln tons. Thus, Ukrainian sunflower oil shipments could grow by almost 24%.
Despite lowering its oilseed production forecast in October, USDA raised its estimate for global oilseed crush by 0.27 mln tons to a record 611.89 mln tons, compared with 593.4 mln tons a season earlier. At the same time, the ending stocks forecast was cut by 0.33 mln tons to 146.31 mln tons, pointing to further growth in oilseed consumption and processing.
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Source : Ukr Agro Consult
