Global wheat prices decline as weak demand intensifies market competition
Global wheat prices declined in early November as subdued demand, exporter competition and Black Sea shipping disruptions weighed on markets. Russian and Ukrainian exports fell sharply, while alternative routes through Romania gained importance. Currency pressures and quality concerns further restrained purchasing by major importers.
GLOBAL – European wheat prices declined in early November as subdued buying interest, competition among exporters and continued disruptions to Black Sea shipments weighed on the market.
Buyers remained cautious amid currency depreciation, sufficient existing stocks and concerns over grain quality, while traders faced pressure to clear inventories at lower prices.
According to S&P Global Commodity Insights, the Platts Milling Wheat Marker for Free on Board (FOB) Black Sea ports averaged US$202.59 per metric tonne in October, down from US$211.73 per tonne in September.
The decline came as buyers continued to avoid deep-sea ports because of security concerns and uncertainty surrounding shipping operations.
Russia exported about 9 million tonnes of wheat between July and October 27, a 43% year-on-year decline, according to S&P Global Energy CERA.
Most shipments were routed through Baltic ports, where weak demand and limited November availability influenced price movements.
FOB Russian Baltic 12.5% protein wheat prices fell to US$258-260 per tonne on November 2, down from the US$270 range the previous week.
However, traders said tight Baltic supplies and unfavourable weather forecasts for December could limit further exports.
Russia is expected to export approximately 3 million tonnes of wheat in November, unchanged from October, according to analytical centre Rusagrotrans.
In Egypt, one of the world’s major wheat-importing markets, buyers remained on the sidelines as the weakening Egyptian pound increased import costs.
Platts assessed CIF East Mediterranean 12.5% protein wheat at US$306 per tonne on November 2, down US$12 week on week.
The decline was also reflected in Egypt’s domestic market, where ex-warehouse Russian 12.5% protein wheat prices dropped by EGP500 per tonne to EGP18,000.
Government sales of wheat to private flour mills at a subsidised price of EGP16,650 per tonne added further pressure.
Egypt’s total wheat imports since January reached 9.2 million tonnes, approximately 600,000 tonnes below the corresponding period last year.
Meanwhile, Ukraine is increasingly relying on alternative export corridors through the Danube and Romania.
Its wheat exports totalled 3.6 million tonnes between July and October 27, compared with 6 million tonnes during the same period in 2025.
Shipments through Romania’s Port of Constanta increased by 294% to 559,000 tonnes by October 26, highlighting the growing importance of alternative routes amid restrictions affecting Black Sea deep-water ports.
Romanian and Bulgarian wheat also faced weaker demand because of concerns over grain quality and shipping risks.
Platts assessed Romanian and Bulgarian (CVB) wheat with 12.5% protein at US$287 per tonne, while 11.5% protein wheat stood at US$273 per tonne.
Some buyers favoured French wheat because of concerns about the quality specifications of available Bulgarian supplies.
Despite these challenges, exports from the region remained relatively strong.
Bulgarian soft wheat exports rose 31% to 2.40 million tonnes between July and October, while soft wheat exports through Constanta rose 40% to 3.88 million tonnes.
Algeria, Saudi Arabia and Jordan were among the destinations supporting Romanian export activity.
Elsewhere, Bangladesh importers continued delaying purchases amid adequate domestic stocks and relatively stable prices, although buying interest is expected to improve as importers begin securing Argentine wheat supplies.
The market outlook will largely depend on purchasing activity from major importing countries, the availability of alternative export routes and developments affecting Black Sea shipping.
For exporters, subdued demand and logistical uncertainty are likely to sustain competition for international buyers in the coming weeks.
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Source : Milling MEA
