IGC lowers forecast for global grain production and consumption next season
International Grains Council warns fertilizer concerns are clouding the 2026/27 outlook. Global grain output is trimmed but still near-record at 2.41 billion tonnes. Consumption rises for a fourth year, tightening supplies despite carryover stocks, while trade stays steady and inventories may decline again next season.
Concerns over fertilizer availability have increased uncertainty around the global grain harvest forecast for the 2026/2027 season, including in parts of the Southern Hemisphere, where future needs may not be fully met, according to a report from the International Grains Council (IGC).
The IGC has reduced its global grain production forecast by 3.3 million tonnes compared to March due to deteriorating harvest prospects for all major crops, including wheat and maize. However, it will still be the second-largest on record at 2.414 billion tonnes.
Due to high carryover stocks, which partially offset the production decline, supplies are projected to be somewhat tighter than in the current season.
The IGC forecasts global consumption to grow for the fourth consecutive year, but growth in feed and industrial use will slow. Compared to the March forecast, the global consumption estimate has been reduced by 3.3 million tonnes to 2,436.6 million tonnes, which is lower than the current season’s 2,422.1 million tonnes.
The global grain trade forecast remained virtually unchanged for the month at 448.3 million tonnes (451.4 million tonnes).
Following the expected increase in stocks in the 2025/2026 season, carryover stocks could decline again next season, including for wheat, corn, and barley. According to the IGC forecast, they will amount to 614.9 million tonnes (637.7 million tonnes).
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Source : Ukr Agro Consult
