India must open the door to white sugar imports before the global window closes – Editorial by Uppal Shah
India’s 2026-27 sugar season faces early crushing of immature cane, lower recovery and an estimated 27 million tonnes of production against 28.5 million tonnes of consumption. With global supplies tightening and stocks declining, the article advocates importing 3–4 million tonnes of white sugar to prevent domestic shortages and price escalation.
Every crushing season begins with a promise. The boilers are lit, the cane carts line up at the factory gate, and an entire rural economy exhales. This year, the promise feels heavier than usual. On a recent visit to Satara and Solapur, I walked past fields that stood green and tall, yet the cane was visibly immature, weeks away from the sweetness a mill needs. And still, the crushing has begun.
That image, I feel, captures the season ahead. The 2026-27 season is opening under pressure from every direction: in the field, at the factory gate and in the world market. It will ask more foresight of all of us than any season in recent memory.
A start set by the calendar, not the crop
Maharashtra has advanced the start of crushing to 15th October, about two weeks ahead of the customary 1st November, and the Centre has encouraged states to begin from the same date. The intent is timely and welcome. It puts fresh sugar in the market before Diwali, at a time when domestic stocks are thin and ex-mill prices have touched record levels. But the season is now being set by the market and the festive calendar rather than by the cane’s readiness.
Every point of recovery lost in these early weeks is sugar the country loses for the whole season. Immature cane yields less sucrose per tonne, and that loss cannot be made up later. The burden of this front-loading falls on the two weakest links. Mills must pay the FRP of Rs. 365 per quintal, approved by the Union Cabinet chaired by the Hon’ble Prime Minister at a base recovery of 10.25%. Farmers are protected at Rs. 338.3 per quintal even where recovery falls below 9.5%. That protection is rightly in place, but it means a mill crushing low-recovery cane pays more for every kg of sugar it makes. The farmer, meanwhile, loses weight an returns by harvesting early, which is why farmer bodies have opposed an overly early start.
India’s balance has turned
For last season, India’s net production was 28 million tonnes after ethanol diversion. For 2026-27, AgriMandi.live estimates production at about 27 million tonnes: roughly 9.4 million tonnes from Uttar Pradesh, 9 million tonnes from Maharashtra, 4.8 million tonnes from Karnataka and 3.8 million tonnes from the rest of the country. Against domestic consumption of about 28.5 million tonnes, a deficit is inevitable.
The production estimate remains subject to weather-related uncertainties and actual crop conditions. The impact of rainfall patterns on cane yields, crop health and sugar recovery will become clearer as the crushing season progresses. In a balance this tight, even a small change in production creates a proportionally bigger problem.
The Government moved early to address this. On 20th August, it notified duty-free imports of 10 lakh tonnes of raw sugar under a Tariff Rate Quota until 31st October, India’s first such window for domestic consumption since 2017-18. It paired this with stock limits on traders and bulk consumers. Yet the uptake has been limited. The scheme is open only to mills and refiners with their own refining capacity, and more than two lakh tonnes of the quota were still unallocated after the first round. The raw sugar route has not delivered the volume the situation needs.
With stocks this tight, there is also very little room for diverting sugar to ethanol this season. Sugar that went to distilleries in comfortable years will be needed in Indian kitchens. The government has also issued directions that sugar diversion for ethanol be reduced to zero for Ethanol Supply Year (ESY) 2026-27. Thus, no offers have been sought for ethanol produced from Sugarcane Juice/ Sugar/Sugar Syrup and B-Heavy molasses in ESY 2026-27.
The world will not wait for us
The global picture offers no cushion. AgriMandi.live’s global balance sheet puts the 2026-27 deficit at 2.7 million tonnes, against total consumption of 179.8 million tonnes. Ending stocks are projected to fall 8.6% to 61.4 million tonnes. That takes the stocks-to-use ratio to 23.8%, the lowest in the seven seasons tracked.
Other analysts have moved the same way. As reported by Barchart, Green Pool forecasted its 2026-27 global deficit estimate to 3.24 million tonnes and StoneX to 900,000 tonnes. Brazilian mills are tilting towards ethanol, and an El Niño threatens harvests in Brazil, India and Thailand.
Demand, meanwhile, is broad. The Middle East, North Africa, China and Southeast Asia will all be in the market as buyers. If India waits, it will be competing with them for the same cargoes at higher prices. International raw sugar could touch 26 cents per lb. A weaker rupee against the dollar could add another 5 to 7% to our landed cost.
This is why I firmly believe the next logical step is to open imports of white sugar, at least 3 to 4 million tonnes, to maintain a healthy stock through the season. Indian sugar today trades at Rs. 5,000-5,200 per quintal, while import parity is around Rs. 5,500-5,600. The gap may sound large, but the alternative is far costlier. If we do not import now, the global squeeze will eventually reach domestic shelves. Sugar at Rs. 70/kg would leave consumers, the industry and policymakers in a far more difficult position. Buying early, at a known parity, is insurance; buying late is a scramble.
The Government has shown it’s willing to act. The raw sugar window, the stock limits and the FRP all reflect that resolve. Extending the same resolve to white sugar would complete the picture. The cane will mature in its own time; our policy must not wait for it.
For further inquiries please contact Uppal Shah, Editor-in-Chief, at uppal@chinimandi.com.
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Source : ChiniMandi
