Philippines braces for lowest palay harvest in 10 years as farmers cut back
The Philippines’ palay production is projected to fall to 18.68 million tonnes in 2026, down from 19.68 million tonnes last year, marking its lowest level since 2016. High fertiliser costs and El Niño-related dry conditions are reducing yields, while rice imports rose 24% to 4.07 million tonnes during January–September.
The country’s palay or unmilled rice production is projected to decline by around one million metric tons (MT) this year to reach its lowest level in a decade, as higher input costs discouraged farmers from planting, according to the Department of Agriculture (DA).
“We’re seeing about a million tons of palay less than last year,” said Agriculture Secretary Francisco Tiu Laurel on the sidelines of the Tuesday Club breakfast forum.
Based on the forecast, palay production this year may reach around 18.68 million MT, down from last year’s harvest of 19.68 million MT.
This would be the lowest palay production since 2016, or when the country produced 17.63 million MT.
The latest projection means the DA would miss its target output this year of 19.87 million MT, which was previously lowered from its original goal of achieving a record high of 20.3 million MT.
The DA earlier estimated that production losses would reach 700,000 MT this year, but this has since been revised upward to one million MT as the impact of higher input costs on production became more evident.
In particular, Tiu Laurel said costly fertilizers left farmers with no choice but to scale back on usage, resulting in lower palay productivity.
Fertilizer products, especially nitrogen-based urea, are closely tied to oil prices, which have remained elevated since the conflict in the Middle East erupted earlier this year.
Tiu Laurel added that planting intentions have weakened this year given the higher costs involved in production.
The impact of dry conditions caused by the El Niño phenomenon is also expected to affect palay production this year.
With a stronger El Niño projected to persist through the first half of 2027, Tiu Laurel said palay production next year could decline by less than one million MT at a minimum.
To ensure a stable rice supply, the Philippines has increased rice imports to offset the potential drop in domestic production.
Government data showed that rice imports rose by 24 percent year-on-year to 4.07 million MT from January to September, up from 3.28 million MT in the same period last year.
Rice imports this year are expected to exceed five million MT, surpassing the record 4.81 million MT set in 2024.
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Source : Manila Bulletin
