El Niño seen pushing up rice prices in 2027
Global rice prices are forecast to rise 17.9% in 2027, averaging $16.50 per hundredweight, as El Niño threatens production across major Asian exporters. BMI projects global output to fall 1.4% to 537 million tonnes, potentially creating a 2.8-million-tonne deficit, although ample inventories may cushion supply risks.
MANILA, Philippines — Global rice prices are projected to rise by nearly 18 percent on average next year as a strong El Niño threatens harvests across major producing countries, particularly those in Asia, according to Fitch Solutions research unit Business Monitor International (BMI).
Rice prices were expected to remain elevated through the first quarter of 2027, BMI said, as El Niño threatens planting cycles across Asia, where several of the world’s largest rice producers and exporters are based.
In its latest forecast, BMI projected that Chicago Board of Trade (CBOT)-listed second-month rough rice futures contracts would average $16.50 per hundredweight in 2027, up 17.9 percent from its forecast of $14 this year.
BMI also raised its 2026 price forecast from $12.90 following “stronger-than-expected price momentum” through the third quarter of the year. Rice futures climbed to a 29-month high of $17.80 in October.
India and Thailand, two major suppliers to the international rice market, were among the countries facing heightened risks from reduced rainfall and higher temperatures, BMI said.
Stable supply
Indian rice production is projected to decline by 4.6 percent to 147 million tons in the 2026-2027 crop year, while Thailand’s output could fall by 1.9 percent to 20.3 million tons.
“We expect planting decisions across major producers to face competing pressures, as expectations of adverse weather conditions could constrain acreage expansion and input application,” BMI said, adding that it expects global rice production to decline by 1.4 percent to 537 million tons.
With consumption projected at 539.8 million tons, the global rice market could swing from a 9.7-million-ton surplus to a 2.8-million-ton deficit.
Still, BMI said there was little evidence of a major supply shock, with global beginning inventories estimated at 204.2 million tons, up 6.6 percent from the previous season.
“That said, with harvesting underway or approaching across the main monsoon crops of key exporters, particularly India and Thailand, we believe exposure to further El Niño-related disruption is progressively diminishing,” it said.
“Overall, we believe conditions in the global physical market remain considerably more stable than the recent move in CBOT-listed futures would suggest, with little evidence that a material supply shock has emerged,” it added.
In the Philippines, the Department of Agriculture earlier warned that El Niño could reduce rice production by 700,000 metric tons (MT) to 1 million MT, potentially resulting in losses of P20 billion under a worst-case scenario.
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Source : INQUIRER.net
