Philippines : rice imports seen at 5.7M MT in 2027—USDA
The Philippines may import a record 5.7 million tonnes of rice in 2027 to build buffer stocks against drought, monsoon and El Niño risks. USDA-FAS lowered production forecasts to 12.25 million tonnes, while improved reservoir levels could support dry-season planting.
MANILA, Philippines — The Philippines may import 5.7 million metric tons (MT) of rice next year to build buffer stocks against drought and monsoon risks, anticipating a production shortage.
The US Department of Agriculture’s Foreign Agricultural Service (FAS) has raised its import forecast for the Philippines, noting that storms, monsoon rains, and the developing El Niño could impact domestic rice output and elevate retail prices.
The updated estimate is nearly 2 percent higher than the previous forecast of 5.6 million MT. If imports reach this level, they will exceed the record import of 4.81 million MT set in 2024.
The USDA-FAS stated, “Rice imports will offset the anticipated production shortfall, in line with Department of Agriculture guidance to build buffer stocks against drought and monsoon risk.” In a recent congressional briefing, the Department of Agriculture said the country may import up to 5 million MT to maintain a sufficient rice inventory due to severe weather conditions.
The USDA-FAS also lowered its rice production forecast to 12.25 million MT for next year, down from an earlier estimate of 12.4 million MT, citing drier weather during the May–June planting season and higher fertilizer costs as hindrances to palay (unmilled rice) production.
However, improved reservoir levels at key irrigation dams starting in August and continuing into September have boosted irrigation prospects for dry-season planting from November to December, partially offsetting the downward pressure on production.
The USDA-FAS acknowledged that the government’s support programs, including the National Rice Program and the Rice Competitiveness Enhancement Fund, “help support continued rice cultivation among farmers.”
El Niño readiness
According to the Philippine Atmospheric, Geophysical and Astronomical Services Administration’s El Niño advisory, a moderate to strong El Niño is likely to persist until the first half of 2027. Experts expect it to strengthen in the coming months and peak toward the end of 2026.
The USDA-FAS noted improvements in reservoir levels in major dams after a steady decline from January, which hit a low in August. Meanwhile, fertilizer prices, although still above last year’s levels, have moderated from their 2026 peak.
Data from the Bureau of Plant Industry (BPI) revealed that rice imports reached 3.89 million MT between January and September 17, surpassing the 2025 import level of 3.39 million MT. Additionally, palay production in the first half of 2026 stood at 9.02 million MT, slightly down from the same period last year, according to the Philippine Statistics Authority (PSA).
The Department of Agriculture plans to suspend rice imports this year to stabilize retail prices and supply amid the El Niño conditions.
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Source : INQUIRER.net
