Record oilseed supply pressures vegetable oil prices
USDA raised its 2026/27 global oilseed production forecast to a record 723.46 million tonnes, while vegetable oil output reached 245.37 million tonnes. Despite higher crude oil prices, palm, soybean, sunflower and rapeseed oil prices declined amid rising supplies.
USDA raised its forecast for global oilseed production in 2026/27 by 2.44 mln tons to a record 723.46 mln tons. This is 22.42 mln tons above the previous season. The forecast for global vegetable oil production was also increased by 0.42 mln tons to a record 245.37 mln tons.
At the same time, higher crude oil prices have so far provided limited support to vegetable oil markets. November Brent futures rose 11.2% over the week to $109/barrel and gained 22% over the month. Despite this, November palm oil futures in Malaysia fell 1.9% over seven days to 4,883 ringgit/t, or around $1,200/t.
December soybean oil futures in Chicago declined 0.4% over the week to $1,550/t, although they remain 35% above last year’s level. In Brazil, spot soybean oil prices increased by $10/t to $1,210–1,220/t FOB, while prices in China remained around $1,360–1,370/t.
Sunflower oil prices continued to decline. In India, demand prices fell by $10/t over the week to $1,430/t CIF Mumbai amid increased supply from the Black Sea region. In Ukraine, demand prices dropped by around $100/t to $1,100–1,120/t delivered to Danube ports due to higher risks for port logistics and rising freight costs.
European rapeseed oil also fell by $10–20/t to $1,435–1,440/t FOB Netherlands. Pressure is being reinforced by cheaper Ukrainian rapeseed oil, which declined to $1,190–1,200/t DAP Ukraine-Poland border. Market participants expect seasonal growth in oilseed supply to continue weighing on vegetable oil prices.
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Source : Ukr Agro Consult
