Rising Temperatures Threaten India’s Wheat Belt: Report
A Climate Trends study warns rising winter and night-time temperatures are threatening India’s wheat production, especially in Punjab, Haryana, and Uttar Pradesh. Shorter winters, heat stress, and unseasonal rainfall are reducing yields, grain quality, and increasing risks to long-term food security.
Punjab and Haryana warming at half a degree per decade during the wheat season, with minimum temperatures rising nearly three times faster in Gujarat 1 June 2026, New Delhi: India produces over 107 million tonnes of wheat annually, making it the second-largest wheat producer in the world and accounting for roughly 14% of global output.
A new study by Climate Trends, Wheat Under Stress: Climate Change, Rising Heat, and Adaptation Pathways in India’s Major Wheat-Growing States, assesses how rising temperatures, particularly warmer winters, increasing night-time temperatures, and more frequent terminal heat events, are already disrupting wheat growth cycles across the country’s five major wheat-producing states, reducing yields and affecting grain quality. The study arrives at a sensitive moment for Indian agriculture.
The commercial wheat export ban introduced in May 2022 continues in order to protect domestic supplies and control inflation after extreme heat disrupted production. At the same time, the India Meteorological Department (IMD) has revised its 2026 monsoon forecast downward to 90% of the long-period average, while global meteorological agencies are tracking what could become one of the strongest El Niño events since 2015–16, adding to concerns around food security and climate-linked agricultural stress.
The report analyses wheat growth trends in Madhya Pradesh, Uttar Pradesh, Punjab, Haryana, and Gujarat and finds a clear slowdown in production growth over the past three decades, particularly across Punjab and Haryana. Haryana’s wheat growth rate has reportedly fallen from nearly 30% during 1986–95 to negative growth between 2015 and 2025, with Punjab showing a similar decline. Night-time temperatures have risen faster than daytime temperatures across all wheat-growing states.
Gujarat records some of the sharpest increases, with minimum temperatures rising far faster than daytime heat. Uttar Pradesh and Haryana also show steep increases in minimum temperatures. According to the study, warmer nights increase plant respiration, speed up crop maturity, and reduce the carbohydrate reserves necessary for grain filling. The result is lower grain weight, poorer grain quality, and reduced productivity. Dr. Palak Balyan, Research Lead at Climate Trends and lead author of the study, described rising night-time temperatures as one of the least recognised but most serious threats to wheat production. She said warmer nights increase physiological stress on plants and reduce the grain-filling window by accelerating maturity during February and March.
This, she explained, leads to shrivelled kernels, poorer grain quality, and lower yields, signalling not merely hotter weather but a gradual disruption of the seasonal cycles that historically sustained wheat farming. Key findings:
• Winter warming is uneven, with Haryana and Punjab, often considered India’s wheat heartland, warming faster than many other producing regions.
• Night-time temperatures are increasing faster than daytime temperatures across all major wheat-producing states, intensifying crop stress.
• February is warming the fastest, recording temperature increases of nearly 0.69 degrees Celsius per decade, followed by March and April, effectively shrinking winter.
• Critical stages such as flowering and grain filling are increasingly vulnerable to spring heat, causing poor germination, early maturity, shrivelled grains, and lower productivity.
• Unseasonal rainfall linked to delayed western disturbances is damaging standing crops, affecting harvests, storage, and grain quality. Climate Trends Founder and Director Aarti Khosla said climate change is already reshaping food systems and rural livelihoods across India. Farmers, she noted, are increasingly facing repeated crop losses, declining grain quality, rising input costs, and growing uncertainty. She argued that climate-smart agriculture, better early warning systems, stronger financial protection, and coordinated support between governments, scientists, and local communities are becoming essential if agriculture is to remain resilient.
The study also highlights uneven adaptive capacity across regions. While both small farmers in Gujarat and larger wheat producers in Punjab experience similar climatic pressures, their ability to cope differs considerably because of unequal access to irrigation, institutional support, credit, and finance. Farmers are attempting to respond through a range of adaptation measures, including adjusting sowing dates, adopting short-duration and heat-tolerant varieties, improving nutrient and water management, and strengthening storage practices.
However, the report stresses that these responses remain incremental and are often constrained by inadequate resources, information gaps, and financial limitations. Umendra Dutt, Executive Director of Kheti Virasat Mission, argued that the visible climate impacts on wheat cultivation in Punjab and Haryana now require a fundamental rethink of agricultural systems. According to him, shorter winters, rising temperatures, poor germination, reduced tillering, and shrivelled grains are already becoming common realities.
He also linked crop v ulnerability to de cades of chemical-intensive agriculture, arguing that weakened soils are now less capable of buffering heat and conserving moisture. Dutt called for a shift toward climate-resilient, soil-centred farming, including mulching, strengthening soil organic matter, ecological crop residue management, indigenous seeds, and policy support that incentivises sustainable agricultural practices. State -level observations further underline how climate impacts vary across regions.
Farmers in Gujarat reported severe harvest-stage losses caused by unseasonal rainfall during March and April, shrinking winters, rising pest pressures, declining storage life, and rising irrigation costs linked to groundwater depletion. Wheat that could once reportedly be stored for years now deteriorates within months due to humidity and pest infestation. Smallholders are also particularly vulnerable because many depend on rented irrigation systems and leased land, leaving them exposed to mounting financial pressures even during crop failures.
In Punjab, farmers described disruptions across the crop cycle. Warmer November temperatures reportedly contribute to delayed or uneven germination, while heat stress during February and March has emerged as a major threat during grain filling. Unseasonal rainfall and humidity during harvest are damaging standing crops, reducing grain quality, and increasing losses. Farmers also report growing unpredictability in weather patterns, making agricultural planning more difficult than before.
The study concludes that climate change is no longer a future concern for India’s wheat systems but an immediate challenge already reshaping agricultural productivity and food security. Researchers argue that safeguarding wheat cultivation will require stronger scientific support, climate-resilient farming systems, institutional coordination, and long-term adaptation measures to protect both farmers and food supplies.
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Source : The Statesman
