Russia’s wheat planting area declines for the fourth consecutive season
Russia’s wheat area has declined by 3 million hectares since 2021 as farmers shift toward more profitable corn and sunflower crops. Reduced plantings and potential winter crop losses could cut wheat production by 14–18 million tonnes in coming seasons, supporting domestic prices of RUB 13,500–17,000 per tonne.
Wheat planting areas in Russia continue to decline due to low profitability and farmers shifting toward more profitable crops. In 2026, winter wheat area totaled 16.1 mln ha, compared with 17.8 mln ha in 2021, a decrease of 1.7 mln ha. Spring wheat plantings fell from 10.2 mln ha to 8.9 mln ha over the same period. Overall, wheat area declined by 3 mln ha, equivalent to approximately 12 mln tons of potential grain production at an average yield of 4 t/ha.
The main reason for the reduction in wheat plantings remains deteriorating production economics. Large agricultural holdings are gradually shifting toward corn and sunflower seed, which, according to available estimates, offer 40–60% higher profitability. Medium-sized farms face increasing debt burdens, while smaller producers are reducing plantings due to low purchase prices that, in some cases, fail to cover production costs.
Against this background, the structure of planted areas is changing. According to available data, corn area increased from 5.8 mln ha to 7.3 mln ha, sunflower seed area expanded from 4.2 mln ha to 5.4 mln ha, and pulses area rose from 1.1 mln ha to 1.6 mln ha. As a result, farmers are increasingly prioritizing crops with higher potential returns, which could reinforce the downward trend in wheat production in the coming seasons.
Persistently low profitability in MY 2026/27 creates risks of a further reduction in wheat supply in MY 2027/28. Shrinking planted areas could result in 12–14 mln tons of lost grain production, while potential winter crop losses could add another 2–4 mln tons. The total potential production decline is estimated at 14–18 mln tons, although actual results will depend on yields, weather conditions, and farmers’ planting decisions.
Under this scenario, domestic wheat prices could rise to RUB 13,500–17,000/t (approximately $162–204/t), creating conditions for a recovery in production profitability. Farmers may begin expanding wheat plantings again once prices exceed RUB 14,000/t (approximately $168/t). However, changes in crop rotation patterns could prove long-lasting, meaning that even an improvement in market conditions would not guarantee a rapid recovery in lost planting areas.
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Source : UkrAgroConsult
