South Africa enjoying record corn crop
South Africa is forecast to harvest a record 17.9 million tonnes of corn in 2025–26, strengthening regional food security and export capacity. Although 2026–27 production is expected to ease to 16.3 million tonnes, ample stocks will support demand despite higher input costs, weather risks, and lower projected exports.
PRETORIA, SOUTH AFRICA — South Africa, an important regional corn exporter, is currently harvesting what is projected to be the largest crop on record, estimated at 17.9 million tonnes for the 2025-26 marketing season, according to a report from the Foreign Agricultural Service (FAS) of the US Department of Agriculture.
With this strong foundation, the corn sector is expected to remain stable during 2026-27, despite a bearish price environment, higher input costs, and potential weather-related challenges, the FAS said in its recent update.
Corn area for 2026-27 is projected to hold steady at 3 million hectares, underpinned by continued improvements in seed genetics and production practices that have helped keep that number steady for the past seven years. Output for 2026-27 is forecast to slip somewhat to 16.3 million tonnes.
“While production is projected to decline modestly from the record 2025-26 output, ample carryover stocks position South Africa to continue meeting domestic and regional demand, reinforcing its role as a critical food security anchor for neighbors across southern Africa,” the FAS said.
Beyond weak price signals, the FAS said producers are contending with rising input costs driven in part by the conflict in the Middle East, which has pushed up local fertilizer and fuel prices, compressing potential profit margins.
Though both have declined from their May 2026 peaks, prices remain elevated compared to a year ago and significant uncertainty persists. Fuel and fertilizer together account for around half of total input costs in corn production.
“Adding to these cost pressures, forecasts of a potential El Niño weather pattern raise the prospect of a drier-than-normal summer season, introducing meaningful agronomic risk and further uncertainty for producers considering expanded plantings,” the FAS said.
Steady growth in South Africa’s corn consumption during 2025-26 and 2026-27 is expected to remain steady at 14.2 million and 14.6 million tonnes, respectively. This outlook is anchored by population growth (currently at 65 million people), which has been the primary driver of demand over the past decade, during which corn consumption has sustained a compound annual growth rate of approximately 2%, the FAS said.
Beginning stocks are seen reaching 2.9 million tonnes in 2025-26 and increasing to 3.2 million tonnes for 2026-27.
Corn exports in 2026-27 are projected to decline to 2.5 million tonnes, down 30% compared to 3.5 million tonnes the previous year due to lower production while consumption growth remains steady. Exports in 2025-26 were up a whopping 70% from 2024-25 due to the record crop.
So far in 2025-26, Vietnam has emerged as South Africa’s primary corn export market, accounting for more than 60% of total corn exports. Zimbabwe ranks second with a 10% share, followed by South Korea at 8%.
In 2024-25, South Africa exported 2.1 million tonnes of corn, with about 85% destined for neighboring countries. Zimbabwe purchased 807,000 tonnes during that period, about 40% of South Africa’s total corn exports.
“This pattern of regional trade underscores South Africa’s role as a critical food security anchor within sub-Saharan Africa, particularly for landlocked and import-dependent neighbors facing structural supply deficits,” the FAS said.
South Africa shipped 1.2 million tonnes of white corn and 873,000 tonnes of yellow corn, reflecting the region’s strong preference for white corn as a staple food crop, while yellow corn continues to serve primarily as an animal feed source in both domestic and export markets.
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Source : World Grain.Com
